Sometimes teams come out of the gate in November ready to go, and blaze a trail of destruction straight through the first two months of the schedule. Those teams are scary. More often, though, it takes a while for a conference's major threats to emerge. Some adjustments can't be made until after a team has tested itself against the first few opponents on its non-conference slate. Only then, when the coaching staff has a better idea of what is working and what is not, will the real evolution of a team commence.
What we have at the moment is nine works in progress. Some of these teams are presently improving with each successive day, while others are stagnant, even deteriorating while their rivals pass them by. That's the reason for checking in each week. Think of this as the red "You Are Here" dot on the map in a mall. Each team has one, but wherever that dot is, the team in question is headed somewhere else.
Without further ado (or analogies), here's your weekly State of America East.
Showing posts with label State of America East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label State of America East. Show all posts
Monday, December 14, 2009
Monday, December 7, 2009
State of America East: December 6, 2009
Four weeks have elapsed since the season's start, so it's about time to check in with BU's eight conference-mates. Which teams have done the best? Which teams are struggling to keep up with their non-conference opponents? And how is Binghamton not the worst team in America East right now?
1. Stony Brook Seawolves
(5-2, RPI 93, SOS 222)
Last week: W 71-52 at Lehigh, L 65-57 at St. John's, W 63-60 vs. Columbia
This week: at Fordham, at Colgate
BU might have the conference's two best wins (Indiana on a neutral court and Northeastern at home), but Stony Brook looked competent in its loss to St. John's and is the only team in the conference without a loss against an opponent of questionable strength. Bryan Dougher, Muhammad El-Amin, and Chris Martin have been a quality backcourt, while Tommy Brenton is one of the league's two or three best frontcourt players despite scoring only six or seven points per game. A difficult 40 minutes against a questionable Columbia team hints at the potential impact of losing Desmond Adedeji, whose injury is season-ending, but right now the Seawolves' resume is best.
2. Boston University Terriers
(3-6, RPI 151, SOS 32)
Last week: L 92-64 at Connecticut, W 63-53 vs. Bucknell
This week: at Marist
BU's wins are impressive, especially given its short bench. Its losses, though, have been concerning. Corey Lowe has exhibited both brilliance and inexplicably poor decision-making, often within minutes of each other. The offense is finally starting to come around; coupled with generally strong defense, scoring has improved enough to give BU a 3-3 record in its last six games against an incredibly difficult non-conference schedule. The most difficult portion of the schedule is over. While the Terriers are highly unlikely to win all three of their games between now and the beginning of conference play, two out of three would put BU at 5-7, battle-tested and ready for America East opposition.
3. Vermont Catamounts
(5-4, RPI 114, SOS 209)
Last week: W 63-58 at Dartmouth, W 88-49 at NJIT
This week: at Yale, vs. Quinnipiac
Vermont's three-game winning streak has come against feeble opposition -- Toledo, Dartmouth, and New Jersey Tech, they of the oft-referenced winless season-and-a-half. One of the Catamounts' other wins, though, came courtesy of Rutgers in New Jersey; after the Terriers two most significant wins, that victory compares favorably to almost any other America East triumph. Marqus Blakely has been his usual self, drawing double and triple-teams and buying Vermont's on-and-off backcourt time to figure things out. Yale isn't exactly a stern test, but Quinnipiac is a solid opponent worthy of a home opener -- even a December home opener.
4. New Hampshire Wildcats
(2-3, RPI 229, SOS 129)
Last week: L 47-32 at Pittsburgh
This week: vs. Central Connecticut State, at Hofstra
In a normal America East season, a 2-3 record with wins over Division-III Suffolk and winless Marist wouldn't be appropriate for the conference's No. 4 team. But this is not a normal America East season. UNH's wins border on meaningless. Its losses, though, are all understandable. Two came against schools from BCS conferences (Maryland and Pitt); the third, at Harvard, makes more sense after watching Harvard solve William & Mary and BU, then take Connecticut to the limit. After almost a month, UNH is a virtual unknown. Wednesday's matchup against Central Connecticut should be a more appropriate test of the Wildcats' abilities.
5. Albany Great Danes
(3-6, RPI 236, SOS 201)
Last week: L 81-65 at Florida Atlantic, L 83-54 at Siena
This week: at Penn, at Central Connecticut State
The closest thing Albany has to a bad loss is probably a four-point defeat at the hands of Morgan State, but the Bears are 5-3 with a win over Arkansas, so it's tough to skewer the Danes for any of the losses. Like UNH, the Danes' biggest crime has been a failure to impress. Albany, though, has had a few opportunities. Morgan State and Florida Atlantic aren't overwhelmingly good opponents, but the Danes couldn't find ways to win, and the margin against FAU wasn't suggestive of a close contest. Losing winnable games can be habit-forming; with two more chances to impress this week, Albany needs to seize one, if not both.
6. Maine Black Bears
(3-4, RPI 259, SOS 325)
Last week: W 76-66 at Colgate, L 101-55 at Syracuse
This week: vs. Maine-Presque Isle, vs. Kennesaw State
Gerald McLemore is very good. Maine's point guards? Not so much. When McLemore is the only perimeter shooter on the floor for the Black Bears -- which happens more often than you'd think -- the box-and-one becomes a legitimately sound defensive strategy to employ. Take McLemore away and the Maine offense stalls. Credit the outstanding sophomore for putting up a bunch of points without much help; blame the Maine coaching staff for failing to recruit a legitimate starting point guard after years and years of substandard play at the position.
7. Hartford Hawks
(2-7, RPI 319, SOS 288)
Last week: L 48-46 vs. Yale, L 89-56 at Seton Hall, L 75-62 at LaSalle
This week: at St. Francis (NY), vs. Sacred Heart
Through four games, junior point guard Andres Torres had 30 assists and five turnovers, and Hartford was 2-2, including a 75-38 steamrolling of Marist. Since then, Torres has committed nearly four turnovers per game and the Hawks have lost five straight. Hartford's ability to avoid turnovers is its best offensive trait, and since the Hawks suffer from both a free throw disparity and poor rebounding at both ends, Torres needs to make sure that strength remains intact. Without it, Hartford is unlikely to do much better than the two teams lying below it in these power rankings.
8. Binghamton Bearcats
(3-5, RPI 205, SOS 38)
Last week: W 64-60 vs. Bucknell
This week: vs. Marshall, at Drake, vs. South Dakota (neutral court)
Yes, Binghamton is -- somehow -- not the worst team in America East to date. This, despite struggling to beat a Division-II opponent at home and a 1-5 record against Division-I competition. Binghamton isn't well-equipped to handle most opponents at this level, but when an opponent can't find its shot for the better part of 40 minutes, the door is left wide open. Credit the Bearcats: Bucknell gave them a chance to win, and the Bearcats seized it. Greer Wright and Dylan Talley are turnover-prone but have the talent to compete at this level. Binghamton isn't about to break out, and by year's end the Bearcats will probably find the America East cellar, but the winless season has been avoided.
9. UMBC Retrievers
(0-7, RPI 344, SOS 330)
Last week: L 82-77 at Towson, L 76-67 at Toledo
This week: at Penn State, vs. Rider
The Retrievers were expected to have some difficulties during non-conference play, primarily due to Chauncey Gilliam's ineligibility. Well, Gilliam regained his eligibility in time for the season opener, yet UMBC remains winless. Two of the Retrievers' opponents, Coppin State and Toledo, have no wins against other Division-I opponents. Both of those teams beat the Retrievers. Coppin State's win came by an 11-point margin -- at UMBC. The Retrievers' best chance for a win before Christmas comes against American on December 19. The Eagles are 1-8; if the Retrievers can't get a victory in Washington D.C., they stand a good chance of starting conference play with a big, fat zero in the win column.
1. Stony Brook Seawolves(5-2, RPI 93, SOS 222)
Last week: W 71-52 at Lehigh, L 65-57 at St. John's, W 63-60 vs. Columbia
This week: at Fordham, at Colgate
BU might have the conference's two best wins (Indiana on a neutral court and Northeastern at home), but Stony Brook looked competent in its loss to St. John's and is the only team in the conference without a loss against an opponent of questionable strength. Bryan Dougher, Muhammad El-Amin, and Chris Martin have been a quality backcourt, while Tommy Brenton is one of the league's two or three best frontcourt players despite scoring only six or seven points per game. A difficult 40 minutes against a questionable Columbia team hints at the potential impact of losing Desmond Adedeji, whose injury is season-ending, but right now the Seawolves' resume is best.
2. Boston University Terriers(3-6, RPI 151, SOS 32)
Last week: L 92-64 at Connecticut, W 63-53 vs. Bucknell
This week: at Marist
BU's wins are impressive, especially given its short bench. Its losses, though, have been concerning. Corey Lowe has exhibited both brilliance and inexplicably poor decision-making, often within minutes of each other. The offense is finally starting to come around; coupled with generally strong defense, scoring has improved enough to give BU a 3-3 record in its last six games against an incredibly difficult non-conference schedule. The most difficult portion of the schedule is over. While the Terriers are highly unlikely to win all three of their games between now and the beginning of conference play, two out of three would put BU at 5-7, battle-tested and ready for America East opposition.
3. Vermont Catamounts(5-4, RPI 114, SOS 209)
Last week: W 63-58 at Dartmouth, W 88-49 at NJIT
This week: at Yale, vs. Quinnipiac
Vermont's three-game winning streak has come against feeble opposition -- Toledo, Dartmouth, and New Jersey Tech, they of the oft-referenced winless season-and-a-half. One of the Catamounts' other wins, though, came courtesy of Rutgers in New Jersey; after the Terriers two most significant wins, that victory compares favorably to almost any other America East triumph. Marqus Blakely has been his usual self, drawing double and triple-teams and buying Vermont's on-and-off backcourt time to figure things out. Yale isn't exactly a stern test, but Quinnipiac is a solid opponent worthy of a home opener -- even a December home opener.
4. New Hampshire Wildcats(2-3, RPI 229, SOS 129)
Last week: L 47-32 at Pittsburgh
This week: vs. Central Connecticut State, at Hofstra
In a normal America East season, a 2-3 record with wins over Division-III Suffolk and winless Marist wouldn't be appropriate for the conference's No. 4 team. But this is not a normal America East season. UNH's wins border on meaningless. Its losses, though, are all understandable. Two came against schools from BCS conferences (Maryland and Pitt); the third, at Harvard, makes more sense after watching Harvard solve William & Mary and BU, then take Connecticut to the limit. After almost a month, UNH is a virtual unknown. Wednesday's matchup against Central Connecticut should be a more appropriate test of the Wildcats' abilities.
5. Albany Great Danes(3-6, RPI 236, SOS 201)
Last week: L 81-65 at Florida Atlantic, L 83-54 at Siena
This week: at Penn, at Central Connecticut State
The closest thing Albany has to a bad loss is probably a four-point defeat at the hands of Morgan State, but the Bears are 5-3 with a win over Arkansas, so it's tough to skewer the Danes for any of the losses. Like UNH, the Danes' biggest crime has been a failure to impress. Albany, though, has had a few opportunities. Morgan State and Florida Atlantic aren't overwhelmingly good opponents, but the Danes couldn't find ways to win, and the margin against FAU wasn't suggestive of a close contest. Losing winnable games can be habit-forming; with two more chances to impress this week, Albany needs to seize one, if not both.
6. Maine Black Bears(3-4, RPI 259, SOS 325)
Last week: W 76-66 at Colgate, L 101-55 at Syracuse
This week: vs. Maine-Presque Isle, vs. Kennesaw State
Gerald McLemore is very good. Maine's point guards? Not so much. When McLemore is the only perimeter shooter on the floor for the Black Bears -- which happens more often than you'd think -- the box-and-one becomes a legitimately sound defensive strategy to employ. Take McLemore away and the Maine offense stalls. Credit the outstanding sophomore for putting up a bunch of points without much help; blame the Maine coaching staff for failing to recruit a legitimate starting point guard after years and years of substandard play at the position.
7. Hartford Hawks(2-7, RPI 319, SOS 288)
Last week: L 48-46 vs. Yale, L 89-56 at Seton Hall, L 75-62 at LaSalle
This week: at St. Francis (NY), vs. Sacred Heart
Through four games, junior point guard Andres Torres had 30 assists and five turnovers, and Hartford was 2-2, including a 75-38 steamrolling of Marist. Since then, Torres has committed nearly four turnovers per game and the Hawks have lost five straight. Hartford's ability to avoid turnovers is its best offensive trait, and since the Hawks suffer from both a free throw disparity and poor rebounding at both ends, Torres needs to make sure that strength remains intact. Without it, Hartford is unlikely to do much better than the two teams lying below it in these power rankings.
8. Binghamton Bearcats(3-5, RPI 205, SOS 38)
Last week: W 64-60 vs. Bucknell
This week: vs. Marshall, at Drake, vs. South Dakota (neutral court)
Yes, Binghamton is -- somehow -- not the worst team in America East to date. This, despite struggling to beat a Division-II opponent at home and a 1-5 record against Division-I competition. Binghamton isn't well-equipped to handle most opponents at this level, but when an opponent can't find its shot for the better part of 40 minutes, the door is left wide open. Credit the Bearcats: Bucknell gave them a chance to win, and the Bearcats seized it. Greer Wright and Dylan Talley are turnover-prone but have the talent to compete at this level. Binghamton isn't about to break out, and by year's end the Bearcats will probably find the America East cellar, but the winless season has been avoided.
9. UMBC Retrievers(0-7, RPI 344, SOS 330)
Last week: L 82-77 at Towson, L 76-67 at Toledo
This week: at Penn State, vs. Rider
The Retrievers were expected to have some difficulties during non-conference play, primarily due to Chauncey Gilliam's ineligibility. Well, Gilliam regained his eligibility in time for the season opener, yet UMBC remains winless. Two of the Retrievers' opponents, Coppin State and Toledo, have no wins against other Division-I opponents. Both of those teams beat the Retrievers. Coppin State's win came by an 11-point margin -- at UMBC. The Retrievers' best chance for a win before Christmas comes against American on December 19. The Eagles are 1-8; if the Retrievers can't get a victory in Washington D.C., they stand a good chance of starting conference play with a big, fat zero in the win column.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
State of America East: Tournament Edition
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, America East's "second season" is about to begin. We've seen non-conference play, where some teams showcased their strengths while others realized their shortcomings. We've also seen conference play, with every team meeting each opponent twice. March, however, is an altogether separate entity.
Cynics will tell you the regular season doesn't really matter, that the season begins now, that nobody ever won a championship in January or February (a statement Binghamton no doubt disagrees with). Such statements are factually based but don't tell the whole story. Nearly four months after the season's first games, we can say plenty about America East's nine teams. We know who the stars are, who lives and dies by the 3, who misses free throws in crunch time, who can't take care of the ball, and all the other details. Most of the surprises -- a Dennis Wolff team relying on zone defenses? Really? -- aren't surprises anymore.
The only thing we don't know is how each of these teams' stories will end. We can forecast, though, and this week we will, seed by seed. Starting at the bottom, it's the...
America East Power Rankings, in reverse
(records versus D-I opponents)
9. Hartford Hawks
6-25 (2-14 AE), RPI 303, SOS 162
Results against Maine: W 76-71 (home), L 68-63 (away)
Even considering the devastating loss of Joe Zeglinski to season-ending injury, the Hawks' season has been a disappointment. While it's difficult to find a positive outlook for a team losing 14 straight games heading into the conference tournament, Hartford's overtime loss at BU suggests the Hawks will be able to put up a good fight against Maine. Hartford split with the Black Bears during the regular season. If Dan Leibovitz's team can get significant offensive contributions from multiple players, the Hawks will stand a good chance. However, even if the nine-seed manages to reach the quarterfinals, it's unlikely this team will be able to cope with Binghamton's athleticism and depth for 40 minutes.
8. Maine Black Bears
8-20 (4-12 AE), RPI 270, SOS 181
Results against Hartford: L 76-71 (away), W 68-63 (away)
Toss out the benefit of playing Hartford at home and the Black Bears haven't won a game since their double-overtime victory versus New Hampshire on January 19th. For a long time, Maine teased observers by playing competitive games against better teams, but as the season progressed it became clear Maine wasn't going to win any of those games. If the Black Bears have an advantage Friday night, it's the relative comfort of not carrying around a double-digit losing streak. Maine hasn't won a tournament game since 2005; if the Black Bears win one this year, they almost certainly won't win a second.
7. Albany Great Danes
14-15 (6-10 AE), RPI 178, SOS 190
Results against Vermont: W 82-77 (away), L 79-70 (home)
A month ago the Great Danes were 5-3 in conference play, in the middle of the league's regular season title race, and playing excellent basketball. Since then? They've gone 1-7. Anthony Raffa hasn't scored in double figures since January and hasn't played since mid-February; without him, Albany's major sources of offense number just two (Tim Ambrose and Will Harris). The Great Danes are at their best when imposing their will on opponents in the rebounding department. If Albany owns the boards, don't count the home team out against anyone.
6. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers
12-16 (7-9 AE), RPI 191, SOS 155
Results against Boston University: L 80-77 (2OT) (away), L 82-65 (home)
Last year Randy Monroe relied on his starters by choice. This year he's done so out of necessity. UMBC has a bench in name only, so Jay Greene and Darryl Proctor have had to play an enormous amount of minutes. What the Retrievers lack in quantity they make up for in quality, but Greene and Proctor will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's tournament results. The Retrievers' perimeter defense has been porous all year and doesn't figure to improve now. Given the number of guard-oriented teams in America East, another championship doesn't appear to be in the cards.
5. Stony Brook Seawolves
15-13 (8-8 AE), RPI 184, SOS 236
Results against New Hampshire: L 70-61 (home), L 58-57 (OT) (away)
Stony Brook could suffer a blowout loss in the quarterfinals and this season would still be a success. A massive defeat is unlikely, though: the Seawolves' biggest loss against a conference opponent this year had just an 11-point margin. Stony Brook can make a run this year, but Bryan Dougher needs to be productive at the point guard position. The Seawolves are 13-6 when Dougher scores in double figures and 12-5 when winning the turnover battle; if those two things don't happen, Stony Brook is just 2-7 and 3-8, respectively.
4. New Hampshire Wildcats
13-15 (8-8 AE), RPI 216, SOS 217
Results against Stony Brook: W 70-61 (away), W 58-57 (OT) (home)
Of the teams outside the top three, New Hampshire has the most momentum, winning four of five to pull level with Stony Brook and bring the home jerseys to Albany. The Wildcats enjoyed a season sweep of their quarterfinal opponent and performed well against the Bearcats in their second meeting, so New Hampshire's chances of making a deep run in this year's tournament are much better than one would have guessed a few weeks ago. The Wildcats' defense has done an excellent job contesting shots in recent weeks, so the offense hasn't had to be overly efficient. This weekend we'll see just how far defense can carry UNH.
3. Boston University Terriers
17-12 (11-5 AE), RPI 149, SOS 193
Results against Maryland-Baltimore County: W 80-77 (2OT) (home), W 82-65 (road)
The Terriers' chances for a regular season title were swept away by a mid-February slump, but BU carries plenty of momentum into this weekend's games. A potential semifinal meeting with Vermont looms in the distance, but the Terriers' first opponent is a legitimate threat. Never discount the six seed -- BU beat Albany as a six-seed just last year. Luckily for the Terriers, this year's offensive strengths match up quite nicely with their opponent's weaknesses. If Corey Lowe, John Holland, and Jake O'Brien aren't hitting their shots, the Terriers are quite beatable, but with an eFG% ranking second in the conference, the odds of poor marksmanship are rather low.
2. Vermont Catamounts
23-7 (13-3), RPI 85, SOS 221
Results against Albany: L 82-77 (home), W 79-70 (away)
Despite missing out on the top seed, Vermont appeared to be in top form heading into the tournament -- except for one Mike Trimboli, that is. The Catamounts' star guard is out with an undisclosed illness and may not be available for the tournament. Trimboli isn't Vermont's undisputed best player (that would be Marqus Blakely), but he is their on-court leader and a major source of offensive production. All of a sudden the Catamounts appear vulnerable. It's not impossible for Vermont to win the tournament without Trimboli, but if he isn't available or isn't playing at full speed, the chances of a Catamount NCAA bid become much worse.
1. Binghamton Bearcats
19-8 (13-3 AE), RPI 92, SOS 222
Results against Maine: W 70-62 (road), W 83-77 (home)
Results against Hartford: W 66-59 (home), W 62-44 (road)
After all the bad press, legal issues, and general uncertainty surrounding this year's Bearcats basketball team, it's Binghamton standing alone at the top of the standings. Well, not alone -- the Catamounts are co-champions -- but certainly on top. The Bearcats are this year's favorites in March and have everything necessary to win it all. A deep and talented backcourt? Check. An athletic, hard-working frontcourt? Check. Desire? Check. Perhaps most importantly, Binghamton finds ways to win close games, either coming from behind at the end or holding off rallying opponents just long enough to hear the final buzzer. Binghamton isn't likely to win the tournament going away, but it will take an incredible effort to knock them out.
Cynics will tell you the regular season doesn't really matter, that the season begins now, that nobody ever won a championship in January or February (a statement Binghamton no doubt disagrees with). Such statements are factually based but don't tell the whole story. Nearly four months after the season's first games, we can say plenty about America East's nine teams. We know who the stars are, who lives and dies by the 3, who misses free throws in crunch time, who can't take care of the ball, and all the other details. Most of the surprises -- a Dennis Wolff team relying on zone defenses? Really? -- aren't surprises anymore.
The only thing we don't know is how each of these teams' stories will end. We can forecast, though, and this week we will, seed by seed. Starting at the bottom, it's the...
America East Power Rankings, in reverse
(records versus D-I opponents)
9. Hartford Hawks6-25 (2-14 AE), RPI 303, SOS 162
Results against Maine: W 76-71 (home), L 68-63 (away)
Even considering the devastating loss of Joe Zeglinski to season-ending injury, the Hawks' season has been a disappointment. While it's difficult to find a positive outlook for a team losing 14 straight games heading into the conference tournament, Hartford's overtime loss at BU suggests the Hawks will be able to put up a good fight against Maine. Hartford split with the Black Bears during the regular season. If Dan Leibovitz's team can get significant offensive contributions from multiple players, the Hawks will stand a good chance. However, even if the nine-seed manages to reach the quarterfinals, it's unlikely this team will be able to cope with Binghamton's athleticism and depth for 40 minutes.
8. Maine Black Bears8-20 (4-12 AE), RPI 270, SOS 181
Results against Hartford: L 76-71 (away), W 68-63 (away)
Toss out the benefit of playing Hartford at home and the Black Bears haven't won a game since their double-overtime victory versus New Hampshire on January 19th. For a long time, Maine teased observers by playing competitive games against better teams, but as the season progressed it became clear Maine wasn't going to win any of those games. If the Black Bears have an advantage Friday night, it's the relative comfort of not carrying around a double-digit losing streak. Maine hasn't won a tournament game since 2005; if the Black Bears win one this year, they almost certainly won't win a second.
7. Albany Great Danes14-15 (6-10 AE), RPI 178, SOS 190
Results against Vermont: W 82-77 (away), L 79-70 (home)
A month ago the Great Danes were 5-3 in conference play, in the middle of the league's regular season title race, and playing excellent basketball. Since then? They've gone 1-7. Anthony Raffa hasn't scored in double figures since January and hasn't played since mid-February; without him, Albany's major sources of offense number just two (Tim Ambrose and Will Harris). The Great Danes are at their best when imposing their will on opponents in the rebounding department. If Albany owns the boards, don't count the home team out against anyone.
6. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers12-16 (7-9 AE), RPI 191, SOS 155
Results against Boston University: L 80-77 (2OT) (away), L 82-65 (home)
Last year Randy Monroe relied on his starters by choice. This year he's done so out of necessity. UMBC has a bench in name only, so Jay Greene and Darryl Proctor have had to play an enormous amount of minutes. What the Retrievers lack in quantity they make up for in quality, but Greene and Proctor will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's tournament results. The Retrievers' perimeter defense has been porous all year and doesn't figure to improve now. Given the number of guard-oriented teams in America East, another championship doesn't appear to be in the cards.
5. Stony Brook Seawolves15-13 (8-8 AE), RPI 184, SOS 236
Results against New Hampshire: L 70-61 (home), L 58-57 (OT) (away)
Stony Brook could suffer a blowout loss in the quarterfinals and this season would still be a success. A massive defeat is unlikely, though: the Seawolves' biggest loss against a conference opponent this year had just an 11-point margin. Stony Brook can make a run this year, but Bryan Dougher needs to be productive at the point guard position. The Seawolves are 13-6 when Dougher scores in double figures and 12-5 when winning the turnover battle; if those two things don't happen, Stony Brook is just 2-7 and 3-8, respectively.
4. New Hampshire Wildcats13-15 (8-8 AE), RPI 216, SOS 217
Results against Stony Brook: W 70-61 (away), W 58-57 (OT) (home)
Of the teams outside the top three, New Hampshire has the most momentum, winning four of five to pull level with Stony Brook and bring the home jerseys to Albany. The Wildcats enjoyed a season sweep of their quarterfinal opponent and performed well against the Bearcats in their second meeting, so New Hampshire's chances of making a deep run in this year's tournament are much better than one would have guessed a few weeks ago. The Wildcats' defense has done an excellent job contesting shots in recent weeks, so the offense hasn't had to be overly efficient. This weekend we'll see just how far defense can carry UNH.
3. Boston University Terriers17-12 (11-5 AE), RPI 149, SOS 193
Results against Maryland-Baltimore County: W 80-77 (2OT) (home), W 82-65 (road)
The Terriers' chances for a regular season title were swept away by a mid-February slump, but BU carries plenty of momentum into this weekend's games. A potential semifinal meeting with Vermont looms in the distance, but the Terriers' first opponent is a legitimate threat. Never discount the six seed -- BU beat Albany as a six-seed just last year. Luckily for the Terriers, this year's offensive strengths match up quite nicely with their opponent's weaknesses. If Corey Lowe, John Holland, and Jake O'Brien aren't hitting their shots, the Terriers are quite beatable, but with an eFG% ranking second in the conference, the odds of poor marksmanship are rather low.
2. Vermont Catamounts23-7 (13-3), RPI 85, SOS 221
Results against Albany: L 82-77 (home), W 79-70 (away)
Despite missing out on the top seed, Vermont appeared to be in top form heading into the tournament -- except for one Mike Trimboli, that is. The Catamounts' star guard is out with an undisclosed illness and may not be available for the tournament. Trimboli isn't Vermont's undisputed best player (that would be Marqus Blakely), but he is their on-court leader and a major source of offensive production. All of a sudden the Catamounts appear vulnerable. It's not impossible for Vermont to win the tournament without Trimboli, but if he isn't available or isn't playing at full speed, the chances of a Catamount NCAA bid become much worse.
1. Binghamton Bearcats19-8 (13-3 AE), RPI 92, SOS 222
Results against Maine: W 70-62 (road), W 83-77 (home)
Results against Hartford: W 66-59 (home), W 62-44 (road)
After all the bad press, legal issues, and general uncertainty surrounding this year's Bearcats basketball team, it's Binghamton standing alone at the top of the standings. Well, not alone -- the Catamounts are co-champions -- but certainly on top. The Bearcats are this year's favorites in March and have everything necessary to win it all. A deep and talented backcourt? Check. An athletic, hard-working frontcourt? Check. Desire? Check. Perhaps most importantly, Binghamton finds ways to win close games, either coming from behind at the end or holding off rallying opponents just long enough to hear the final buzzer. Binghamton isn't likely to win the tournament going away, but it will take an incredible effort to knock them out.
Monday, February 23, 2009
State of America East
With precious few games remaining in the regular season, races once defined by mystery are beginning to show signs of resolution. Eleven days before the conference tournament's start, some teams already know their final station in the America East standings. Even ignoring the tournament, however, there are plenty of teams whose fates are not yet decided. Four teams are racing to avoid a quarterfinal matchup with the conference's top three contenders; only two can succeed. At the top of the table, Binghamton and Vermont are staring each other down -- if the Bearcats blink, the Catamounts can sneak away with an NIT autobid.
Let's get down to business.
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents)
1. Binghamton Bearcats
18-8 (12-3 AE), RPI 99, SOS 223
Last week: W 62-44 at Hartford, W 70-69 vs. New Hampshire (OT)
This week: 2/26 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
There's just one game left on Binghamton's schedule. That gives the Bearcats just one opportunity to slip up and lose the inside track to the regular-season title. Binghamton doesn't blow opponents away -- just three double-digit wins in conference play compared to Vermont's nine and Boston University's seven -- so Thursday's battle with the Retrievers should be interesting even before factoring in the title implications. Close games don't seem to faze the Bearcats, though: look no further than Bingamton's results against the Catamounts. Binghamton is battle-tested and ready for March.
2. Vermont Catamounts
22-7 (12-3 AE), RPI 86, SOS 206
Last week: W 77-65 at Maryland-Baltimore County, W 78-70 vs. Buffalo
This week: 3/1 vs. Maine
The Bearcats may appear headed for a regular-season title, but the Catamounts are in position to pounce should Binghamton falter. Vermont didn't need to further qualify itself as a title contender; still, Saturday's televised BracketBuster matchup provided an excellent opportunity. The Catamounts did not disappoint, dispatching Buffalo for a national audience. A Maine team with very little to play for isn't the best tuneup for post-season play, so Mike Lonergan will have to hope the BracketBuster experience pays off in Albany.
3. Boston University Terriers
15-12 (9-5 AE), RPI 150, SOS 179
Last week: L 66-54 at Stony Brook, W 63-57 vs. Iona
This week: 2/26 vs. Maine, 3/1 vs. Hartford
BU stopped its slide at three with a win over Iona but suffered a major blow, as Corey Lowe was sidelined toward game's end by a sprained ankle. Even if Lowe manages to return in time for the conference tournament, the probability of effective performance from the junior guard is unknown. Ignoring the wide array of possible outcomes related to Lowe's injury (some of which are positive -- it's not unreasonable to link Lowe's poor play the past two games with the possibility of fatigue, and being sidelined will allow him to rest), the Terriers have two should-win games left on the schedule. Maine and Hartford shouldn't be more than speed bumps for a contender, but without Lowe BU will need more offense from its complementary players. Jeff Pelage's nine points on Saturday were a positive sign.
4. Stony Brook Seawolves
14-12 (7-7 AE), RPI 179, SOS 205
Last week: W 66-54 vs. Boston University
This week: 2/26 at Hartford, 3/1 at New Hampshire
Strange things happen on Senior Night. Strange and wonderful if you're Michael Tyree, who scored 25 points in the Seawolves' victory over Boston University. The win punctuates the Seawolves' improvement from the first half of conference play to the second. After losing its first two games against the top three teams in America East by reasonable but substantial margins, Stony Brook forced overtime in the next three games before beating BU for the home finale. Of the teams lying outside the conference's upper echelon, the Seawolves most closely fit the definition of "tough out."
5. Albany Great Danes
14-13 (6-8 AE), RPI 155, SOS 173
Last week: W 80-69 vs. Maine
This week: 2/26 at New Hampshire, 3/1 at Maryland-Baltimore County
Yesterday's Stat of the Week highlighted Albany's newfound efficient offense, using strong offensive rebounding and plenty of free throws to overcome poor shooting from the field. New Hampshire sends opponents to the line on a regular basis, but how will the Great Danes fare against an opponent with excellent defensive rebounding? Albany's offense sputtered against the Wildcats the first time out, but that performance was defined by even worse shooting than usual from the Danes. Albany plays both New Hampshire and UMBC, giving the Danes a chance to secure fifth place without any outside help; a win on Thursday would go a long way toward guaranteeing a positive outcome.
6. New Hampshire Wildcats
10-15 (6-8 AE), RPI 236, SOS 236
Last week: W 63-54 vs. Maine, L 70-69 at Binghamton (OT)
This week: 2/26 vs. Albany, 3/1 vs. Stony Brook
After slipping midway through conference play, the Wildcat defense has smothered opposing offenses in recent weeks, holding Albany, Maine, and Binghamton below one point per possession. Mediocre offense continues to hold the Wildcats back, but solid play while protecting the basket will keep New Hampshire competitive after the regular season comes to a close. Still, it should be noted that everyone's favorite sleeper pick hasn't caught the rest of the conference napping. This year's Wildcat team has displayed modest improvement at best.
7. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers
11-15 (6-8 AE), RPI 201, SOS 166
Last week: L 77-65 vs. Vermont, L 71-65 at Rider
This week: 2/26 at Binghamton, 3/1 at Albany
UMBC plays hard but doesn't quite have the horses to run with the big guns. Saturday's loss at Rider underscores this point. Jay Greene, Darryl Proctor, and Chauncey Gilliam are all capable scorers. Beyond those three, the Retrievers don't have much. When the rest of the roster combines for just 11 points, UMBC isn't going to win many games. Two road games await: the first against a team seeking the regular-season title, the second against a team battling the Retrievers for seeding. There are no easy games left. Time for the rest of the roster to step up.
8. Maine Black Bears
8-18 (4-10 AE), RPI 277, SOS 217
Last week: L 63-54 at New Hampshire, L 80-69 at Albany
This week: 2/26 at Boston University, 3/1 vs. Vermont
The Black Bears were promising at times. Unfortunately for Maine-iacs, this team seems to be running out of steam, losing seven of eight heading into the season's final week. After competent play early in the season, Ted Woodward's team has played itself right into the play-in game. If the Black Bears can pull a double upset to reach six wins in conference play, two New Hampshire losses can get Maine to seventh. A Friday night tilt with Hartford at SEFCU Arena is far more likely.
9. Hartford Hawks
6-23 (2-12 AE), RPI 298, SOS 171
Last week: L 62-44 vs. Binghamton, L 57-35 at Marist
This week: 2/26 vs. Stony Brook, 3/1 at Boston University
This year's cellar-dwellers have lost what little offense they had. Saturday's result may be the most embarrasing one yet: just 35 points in a 68-possession game against Marist. Even New Hampshire's toothless performances against Vermont and Boston University featured offensive efficiencies north of 60; the Hawks were toying with 50. Someone has to finish last, so Hartford's position isn't the sad part. No, it's sad that the Hawks are playing every bit as poorly as their record suggests.
Conference performance
OOC record: 54-59 (Saturday: 2-2)
Conference RPI: 16 out of 31
Conference SOS: 16 out of 31
Let's get down to business.
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents)
1. Binghamton Bearcats18-8 (12-3 AE), RPI 99, SOS 223
Last week: W 62-44 at Hartford, W 70-69 vs. New Hampshire (OT)
This week: 2/26 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
There's just one game left on Binghamton's schedule. That gives the Bearcats just one opportunity to slip up and lose the inside track to the regular-season title. Binghamton doesn't blow opponents away -- just three double-digit wins in conference play compared to Vermont's nine and Boston University's seven -- so Thursday's battle with the Retrievers should be interesting even before factoring in the title implications. Close games don't seem to faze the Bearcats, though: look no further than Bingamton's results against the Catamounts. Binghamton is battle-tested and ready for March.
2. Vermont Catamounts22-7 (12-3 AE), RPI 86, SOS 206
Last week: W 77-65 at Maryland-Baltimore County, W 78-70 vs. Buffalo
This week: 3/1 vs. Maine
The Bearcats may appear headed for a regular-season title, but the Catamounts are in position to pounce should Binghamton falter. Vermont didn't need to further qualify itself as a title contender; still, Saturday's televised BracketBuster matchup provided an excellent opportunity. The Catamounts did not disappoint, dispatching Buffalo for a national audience. A Maine team with very little to play for isn't the best tuneup for post-season play, so Mike Lonergan will have to hope the BracketBuster experience pays off in Albany.
3. Boston University Terriers15-12 (9-5 AE), RPI 150, SOS 179
Last week: L 66-54 at Stony Brook, W 63-57 vs. Iona
This week: 2/26 vs. Maine, 3/1 vs. Hartford
BU stopped its slide at three with a win over Iona but suffered a major blow, as Corey Lowe was sidelined toward game's end by a sprained ankle. Even if Lowe manages to return in time for the conference tournament, the probability of effective performance from the junior guard is unknown. Ignoring the wide array of possible outcomes related to Lowe's injury (some of which are positive -- it's not unreasonable to link Lowe's poor play the past two games with the possibility of fatigue, and being sidelined will allow him to rest), the Terriers have two should-win games left on the schedule. Maine and Hartford shouldn't be more than speed bumps for a contender, but without Lowe BU will need more offense from its complementary players. Jeff Pelage's nine points on Saturday were a positive sign.
4. Stony Brook Seawolves14-12 (7-7 AE), RPI 179, SOS 205
Last week: W 66-54 vs. Boston University
This week: 2/26 at Hartford, 3/1 at New Hampshire
Strange things happen on Senior Night. Strange and wonderful if you're Michael Tyree, who scored 25 points in the Seawolves' victory over Boston University. The win punctuates the Seawolves' improvement from the first half of conference play to the second. After losing its first two games against the top three teams in America East by reasonable but substantial margins, Stony Brook forced overtime in the next three games before beating BU for the home finale. Of the teams lying outside the conference's upper echelon, the Seawolves most closely fit the definition of "tough out."
5. Albany Great Danes14-13 (6-8 AE), RPI 155, SOS 173
Last week: W 80-69 vs. Maine
This week: 2/26 at New Hampshire, 3/1 at Maryland-Baltimore County
Yesterday's Stat of the Week highlighted Albany's newfound efficient offense, using strong offensive rebounding and plenty of free throws to overcome poor shooting from the field. New Hampshire sends opponents to the line on a regular basis, but how will the Great Danes fare against an opponent with excellent defensive rebounding? Albany's offense sputtered against the Wildcats the first time out, but that performance was defined by even worse shooting than usual from the Danes. Albany plays both New Hampshire and UMBC, giving the Danes a chance to secure fifth place without any outside help; a win on Thursday would go a long way toward guaranteeing a positive outcome.
6. New Hampshire Wildcats10-15 (6-8 AE), RPI 236, SOS 236
Last week: W 63-54 vs. Maine, L 70-69 at Binghamton (OT)
This week: 2/26 vs. Albany, 3/1 vs. Stony Brook
After slipping midway through conference play, the Wildcat defense has smothered opposing offenses in recent weeks, holding Albany, Maine, and Binghamton below one point per possession. Mediocre offense continues to hold the Wildcats back, but solid play while protecting the basket will keep New Hampshire competitive after the regular season comes to a close. Still, it should be noted that everyone's favorite sleeper pick hasn't caught the rest of the conference napping. This year's Wildcat team has displayed modest improvement at best.
7. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers11-15 (6-8 AE), RPI 201, SOS 166
Last week: L 77-65 vs. Vermont, L 71-65 at Rider
This week: 2/26 at Binghamton, 3/1 at Albany
UMBC plays hard but doesn't quite have the horses to run with the big guns. Saturday's loss at Rider underscores this point. Jay Greene, Darryl Proctor, and Chauncey Gilliam are all capable scorers. Beyond those three, the Retrievers don't have much. When the rest of the roster combines for just 11 points, UMBC isn't going to win many games. Two road games await: the first against a team seeking the regular-season title, the second against a team battling the Retrievers for seeding. There are no easy games left. Time for the rest of the roster to step up.
8. Maine Black Bears8-18 (4-10 AE), RPI 277, SOS 217
Last week: L 63-54 at New Hampshire, L 80-69 at Albany
This week: 2/26 at Boston University, 3/1 vs. Vermont
The Black Bears were promising at times. Unfortunately for Maine-iacs, this team seems to be running out of steam, losing seven of eight heading into the season's final week. After competent play early in the season, Ted Woodward's team has played itself right into the play-in game. If the Black Bears can pull a double upset to reach six wins in conference play, two New Hampshire losses can get Maine to seventh. A Friday night tilt with Hartford at SEFCU Arena is far more likely.
9. Hartford Hawks6-23 (2-12 AE), RPI 298, SOS 171
Last week: L 62-44 vs. Binghamton, L 57-35 at Marist
This week: 2/26 vs. Stony Brook, 3/1 at Boston University
This year's cellar-dwellers have lost what little offense they had. Saturday's result may be the most embarrasing one yet: just 35 points in a 68-possession game against Marist. Even New Hampshire's toothless performances against Vermont and Boston University featured offensive efficiencies north of 60; the Hawks were toying with 50. Someone has to finish last, so Hartford's position isn't the sad part. No, it's sad that the Hawks are playing every bit as poorly as their record suggests.
Conference performance
OOC record: 54-59 (Saturday: 2-2)
Conference RPI: 16 out of 31
Conference SOS: 16 out of 31
Monday, February 16, 2009
State of America East
With the cream of America East’s crop separated from the pack, it was a matter of time before the top teams decided upon an order. Two games of massive importance yielded two wildly different results. Meanwhile, a former contender fell by the wayside while a team once left for dead continued its climb back to respectability. Let’s cut to the chase:
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents)
1. Binghamton Bearcats
16-8 (10-3 AE), RPI 99, SOS 212
Last week: W 60-59 at Boston University
This week: 2/18 at Hartford, 2/22 vs. New Hampshire
The Catamounts have a half-game lead in the standings to go with the league's best offense and defense, yet it's Binghamton with the inside track to the regular-season title courtesy of a win against the Terriers last Saturday. For whatever reason, the Bearcats have had Vermont's number this season, finding ways to win in crunch time. Athleticism may have something to do with it -- D.J. Rivera's ability to get to the rim suggests he's a Big East star, not an America East talent. If the Bearcats win out (and we're not making any assumptions), the top seed grants Binghamton a road back to Vestal excluding both Vermont and BU. Talk about a happy Valentines' Day.
2. Vermont Catamounts
20-7 (11-3 AE), RPI 108, SOS 243
Last week: W 75-47 vs. Boston University, W 69-64 vs. Stony Brook (OT)
This week: 2/19 at Maryland-Baltimore County, 2/21 vs. Buffalo
John Holland's thunderous dunk was heard all the way in Bristol, CT, as the Terrier star was number one on SportsCenter's top plays. The dunk also woke a sleeping giant. The Catamounts went on to win by 28. Stony Brook surpisingly proved to be more of a challenge and survived a full 40 minutes before succumbing in overtime. Vermont has been frustrating almost beyond belief this year, sometimes unstoppable, other times eminently beatable. A loss in either of the remaining conference games will all but guarantee Binghamton the top seed; if the mortal version of the Catamounts show up, a 13-3 conference record is far from guaranteed.
3. Boston University Terriers
14-11 (9-4 AE), RPI 147, SOS 190
Last week: L 75-47 at Vermont, L 60-59 at Binghamton
This week: 2/18 at Stony Brook, 2/21 vs. Iona
Corey Lowe and John Holland are all-conference material, but they, too, have their down moments. Averaging more than 38 points between them in conference play, Lowe and Holland combined for just 17 in BU's loss on Saturday. It's unlikely the duo will manage 17 or less in any of BU's remaining games or in the tournament, which bodes well for BU's chances should Binghamton appear on the schedule for a third time. The challenge for the Terriers will be getting there. Since the Terriers are all but locked into the three seed, a Bearcat regular season title would leave the Catamounts as BU's most likely semifinal opponent. The odds of solving that particular puzzle are somewhat less comforting.
4. Stony Brook Seawolves
13-12 (6-7 AE), RPI 191, SOS 232
Last week: W 58-47 vs. Albany, L 69-64 at Vermont (OT)
This week: 2/18 vs. Boston University
Could the Seawolves be a .500 team this year? It appears the answer is: yes, most certainly. Even more surprising, Stony Brook is in position to secure itself a very winnable matchup in Albany -- and it won't be the play-in game, either. The Seawolves defend and rebound, and unlike the Great Danes, they play under control. Rebounding and turnover advantages are important. Speaking of rebounding, Tommy Brenton is still the only player in America East averaging more than ten rebounds during conference play.
5. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers
11-13 (6-7 AE), RPI 199, SOS 207
Last week: W 81-76 vs. New Hampshire, W 80-63 at Hartford
This week: 2/19 vs. Vermont, 2/21 at Rider
Don't look now, but the Retrievers have won three straight, including two on the road. Is this a resurgence from the current title-holders, or just a product of scheduling? It's probably a little of both. Still, at the very least UMBC has escaped last place. The Vermont game is a probable loss, as is the Retrievers' trip to Vestal, so Randy Monroe's team will need to outperform expectations if a quarterfinals date with the top three is to be avoided. Manage that, and the odds of making some noise in the tournament will be much improved.
6. Albany Great Danes
13-13 (5-8 AE), RPI 156, SOS 178
Last week: L 58-47 at Stony Brook, L 78-59 vs. New Hampshire
This week: 2/22 vs. Maine
Albany hasn't won a game since January. The first three losses were understandable, perhaps even expected. Losing by 11 to Stony Brook was troubling but not unprecedented. A 19-point defeat at the hands of New Hampshire? That's a red flag. The Danes have Maine at home, which ought to help Will Brown right the ship, but Albany needs to get its house in order. The schedule does give Albany a chance to grab some more wins as March approaches: the Danes get Maine and UNH (again) before the season finale in Baltimore, while the Retrievers see Vermont and Binghamton. One or two more slip-ups, though, and the Danes' first home game in the conference tournament might be scheduled for Friday.
7. Maine Black Bears
8-16 (4-8 AE), RPI 266, SOS 223
Last week: W 68-63 vs. Hartford
This week: 2/19 at New Hampshire, 2/22 at Albany
A five-point win against Hartford at home isn't particularly impressive, but Maine doesn't need impressive right now. No, Maine needs wins, the most important opportunity for which is fast approaching. A victory in Durham on Thursday will move Maine into a tie for seventh and secure the head-to-head tiebreaker should Maine and New Hampshire finish the regular season level. A loss, and the Black Bears will be two games back with the tiebreaker situation rendered all but moot. Maine's efficiency margin advantage suggests the Black Bears are the superior team; we'll find out on Thursday.
8. New Hampshire Wildcats
9-14 (5-7 AE), RPI 238, SOS 249
Last week: L 81-76 at Maryland-Baltimore County, W 78-59 at Albany
This week: 2/19 vs. Maine, 2/22 at Binghamton
UNH doesn't need to beat Maine in order to avoid the play-in game, but it would help. As a seven-loss team, finishing anywhere from fourth to eighth is a plausible result for the Wildcats. Two of the teams nearby in the standings, Albany and Stony Brook, visit Durham at season's end, so the real make-or-break moments for New Hampshire are still a ways away. Winning Thursday and Sunday will help build momentum, but for now the high-stress moments can wait.
9. Hartford Hawks
6-21 (2-11 AE), RPI 298, SOS 180
Last week: L 68-63 at Maine, L 80-63 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
This week: 2/18 vs. Binghamton, 2/21 at Marist
There's no question which team is the worst in America East this year, so here's a different question: what happened to Morgan Sabia? Sabia's minutes have risen this year, but in the process his shooting percentage has fallen dramatically, from 47 percent last season to 40 percent now. There isn't any noticeable improvement in other categories. While Sabia wasn't the offense's cornerstone last year, he was an efficient and capable scorer. Without Zeglinski, Sabia's lack of improvement puts the primary scoring duties in the hands of guards whose greatest strengths lie in other areas. In a guard-oriented conference, that spells trouble.
Team efficiency
Overall
Conference play
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents)
1. Binghamton Bearcats16-8 (10-3 AE), RPI 99, SOS 212
Last week: W 60-59 at Boston University
This week: 2/18 at Hartford, 2/22 vs. New Hampshire
The Catamounts have a half-game lead in the standings to go with the league's best offense and defense, yet it's Binghamton with the inside track to the regular-season title courtesy of a win against the Terriers last Saturday. For whatever reason, the Bearcats have had Vermont's number this season, finding ways to win in crunch time. Athleticism may have something to do with it -- D.J. Rivera's ability to get to the rim suggests he's a Big East star, not an America East talent. If the Bearcats win out (and we're not making any assumptions), the top seed grants Binghamton a road back to Vestal excluding both Vermont and BU. Talk about a happy Valentines' Day.
2. Vermont Catamounts20-7 (11-3 AE), RPI 108, SOS 243
Last week: W 75-47 vs. Boston University, W 69-64 vs. Stony Brook (OT)
This week: 2/19 at Maryland-Baltimore County, 2/21 vs. Buffalo
John Holland's thunderous dunk was heard all the way in Bristol, CT, as the Terrier star was number one on SportsCenter's top plays. The dunk also woke a sleeping giant. The Catamounts went on to win by 28. Stony Brook surpisingly proved to be more of a challenge and survived a full 40 minutes before succumbing in overtime. Vermont has been frustrating almost beyond belief this year, sometimes unstoppable, other times eminently beatable. A loss in either of the remaining conference games will all but guarantee Binghamton the top seed; if the mortal version of the Catamounts show up, a 13-3 conference record is far from guaranteed.
3. Boston University Terriers14-11 (9-4 AE), RPI 147, SOS 190
Last week: L 75-47 at Vermont, L 60-59 at Binghamton
This week: 2/18 at Stony Brook, 2/21 vs. Iona
Corey Lowe and John Holland are all-conference material, but they, too, have their down moments. Averaging more than 38 points between them in conference play, Lowe and Holland combined for just 17 in BU's loss on Saturday. It's unlikely the duo will manage 17 or less in any of BU's remaining games or in the tournament, which bodes well for BU's chances should Binghamton appear on the schedule for a third time. The challenge for the Terriers will be getting there. Since the Terriers are all but locked into the three seed, a Bearcat regular season title would leave the Catamounts as BU's most likely semifinal opponent. The odds of solving that particular puzzle are somewhat less comforting.
4. Stony Brook Seawolves13-12 (6-7 AE), RPI 191, SOS 232
Last week: W 58-47 vs. Albany, L 69-64 at Vermont (OT)
This week: 2/18 vs. Boston University
Could the Seawolves be a .500 team this year? It appears the answer is: yes, most certainly. Even more surprising, Stony Brook is in position to secure itself a very winnable matchup in Albany -- and it won't be the play-in game, either. The Seawolves defend and rebound, and unlike the Great Danes, they play under control. Rebounding and turnover advantages are important. Speaking of rebounding, Tommy Brenton is still the only player in America East averaging more than ten rebounds during conference play.
5. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers11-13 (6-7 AE), RPI 199, SOS 207
Last week: W 81-76 vs. New Hampshire, W 80-63 at Hartford
This week: 2/19 vs. Vermont, 2/21 at Rider
Don't look now, but the Retrievers have won three straight, including two on the road. Is this a resurgence from the current title-holders, or just a product of scheduling? It's probably a little of both. Still, at the very least UMBC has escaped last place. The Vermont game is a probable loss, as is the Retrievers' trip to Vestal, so Randy Monroe's team will need to outperform expectations if a quarterfinals date with the top three is to be avoided. Manage that, and the odds of making some noise in the tournament will be much improved.
6. Albany Great Danes13-13 (5-8 AE), RPI 156, SOS 178
Last week: L 58-47 at Stony Brook, L 78-59 vs. New Hampshire
This week: 2/22 vs. Maine
Albany hasn't won a game since January. The first three losses were understandable, perhaps even expected. Losing by 11 to Stony Brook was troubling but not unprecedented. A 19-point defeat at the hands of New Hampshire? That's a red flag. The Danes have Maine at home, which ought to help Will Brown right the ship, but Albany needs to get its house in order. The schedule does give Albany a chance to grab some more wins as March approaches: the Danes get Maine and UNH (again) before the season finale in Baltimore, while the Retrievers see Vermont and Binghamton. One or two more slip-ups, though, and the Danes' first home game in the conference tournament might be scheduled for Friday.
7. Maine Black Bears8-16 (4-8 AE), RPI 266, SOS 223
Last week: W 68-63 vs. Hartford
This week: 2/19 at New Hampshire, 2/22 at Albany
A five-point win against Hartford at home isn't particularly impressive, but Maine doesn't need impressive right now. No, Maine needs wins, the most important opportunity for which is fast approaching. A victory in Durham on Thursday will move Maine into a tie for seventh and secure the head-to-head tiebreaker should Maine and New Hampshire finish the regular season level. A loss, and the Black Bears will be two games back with the tiebreaker situation rendered all but moot. Maine's efficiency margin advantage suggests the Black Bears are the superior team; we'll find out on Thursday.
8. New Hampshire Wildcats9-14 (5-7 AE), RPI 238, SOS 249
Last week: L 81-76 at Maryland-Baltimore County, W 78-59 at Albany
This week: 2/19 vs. Maine, 2/22 at Binghamton
UNH doesn't need to beat Maine in order to avoid the play-in game, but it would help. As a seven-loss team, finishing anywhere from fourth to eighth is a plausible result for the Wildcats. Two of the teams nearby in the standings, Albany and Stony Brook, visit Durham at season's end, so the real make-or-break moments for New Hampshire are still a ways away. Winning Thursday and Sunday will help build momentum, but for now the high-stress moments can wait.
9. Hartford Hawks6-21 (2-11 AE), RPI 298, SOS 180
Last week: L 68-63 at Maine, L 80-63 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
This week: 2/18 vs. Binghamton, 2/21 at Marist
There's no question which team is the worst in America East this year, so here's a different question: what happened to Morgan Sabia? Sabia's minutes have risen this year, but in the process his shooting percentage has fallen dramatically, from 47 percent last season to 40 percent now. There isn't any noticeable improvement in other categories. While Sabia wasn't the offense's cornerstone last year, he was an efficient and capable scorer. Without Zeglinski, Sabia's lack of improvement puts the primary scoring duties in the hands of guards whose greatest strengths lie in other areas. In a guard-oriented conference, that spells trouble.
Team efficiency
Overall
Conference play
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
State of America East
A long, long time ago, in a land far, far away, there was a league on the verge of parity. Every team lost at least two of its first five conference games. There was talk that the bottom-feeders had finally caught up with the front-runners, that ten wins might be enough to win the conference. No prediction was safe.
Oh, wait. Never mind. The distant league in question only appears to be distant. While the winds of change were blowing through America East, reality was quick to sink in. Three weeks ago the conference leaders had two losses and wore New Hampshire jerseys. Today the leaders wear scarlet and white and have... two losses. So much for parity.
It's a three-horse race; is there a Secretariat in this leading group, or are we in for a photo finish? Only time will tell, but here's a snapshot -- we can revisit it later should the ending prove memorable.
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents only)
1. Vermont Catamounts
18-7 (9-3 AE), RPI 116, SOS 248
Last week: L 85-83 vs. Binghamton, W 79-70 at Albany, W 71-63 vs. Hartford
This week: 2/11 vs. Boston University, 2/15 vs. Stony Brook
The Terriers have first place in the standings courtesy of an eight-game winning streak, but Vermont hosts the America East leaders tomorrow night in what is almost certainly the biggest conference game of the year -- next Saturday's Battle of the BU's is a close second. The Catamounts monumental collapse at home against Binghamton temporarily overshadows what we like to call the big picture. That picture still labels Vermont as a deeper team than the Terriers with a slightly better efficiency margin in conference play. That, plus a somewhat easier schedule from here on out, keeps Vermont at the top of this list -- but for how long?
2. Boston University Terriers
14-9 (9-2 AE), RPI 145, SOS 230
Last week: W 77-67 vs. Albany, W 67-49 at New Hampshire
This week: 2/11 at Vermont, 2/14 vs. Binghamton
The Terriers have rebounded from a 1-2 start in impressive fashion, grinding out overtime wins before building an impressive resumé by winning on the road despite limited depth. Fatigue isn't likely to be the problem this week, but the strength of opponent is another story entirely. Vermont and Binghamton are hot on the Terriers' heels, sitting just a half-game back. BU's previous loss to Vermont hurts: if BU splits its next two games either way and all of the top three teams win out the rest of the way, the Terriers will lose the tiebreaker for first place (if tied with Vermont, the Catamounts would own a series sweep; if tied with Binghamton, the Bearcats' sweep of Vermont would give them the tiebreaker). Two wins will all but lock up the regular-season crown and an NIT autobid. The goal for Wolff & Co.? Just win, baby!
3. Binghamton Bearcats
14-8 (9-3 AE), RPI 110, SOS 226
Last week: W 85-83 at Vermont, W 63-61 at Stony Brook (OT), W 88-75 vs. Albany
This week: 2/14 at Boston University
A loss to Vermont last week would make tomorrow's BU-Vermont clash even more important, but who prefers a two-horse race over three serious contenders? Binghamton has won most of its conference games by overwhelming its opponents with big runs in short periods of time, and the comeback win at Patrick was no exception. The Bearcats scored 24 points in their last 10 possessions to shock the Burlington crowd. The Binghamton-Albany game, however, followed a somewhat different storyline. While the Bearcats' early dominance helped to build an unassailable lead, Kevin Broadus' players displayed confidence and competence for a full 40 minutes. It will take that kind of effort to grab a win in Boston and make a run at 1st place.
4. Albany Great Danes
13-11 (5-6 AE), RPI 120, SOS 169
Last week: L 77-67 at Boston University, L 79-70 vs. Vermont, L 88-75 at Binghamton
This week: 2/12 at Stony Brook, 2/15 vs. New Hampshire
What a difference a week makes. At 5-3 in America East play, the Great Danes were contenders. After a second run-in with the class of the conference? The current situation is rather less promising. All of a sudden Albany needs to find a way to win at Stony Brook to reassert its grip on the 4-seed. Not that there's much of a difference between 4th and 5th when it comes to the tournament. It's more important for the Danes to stop the bleeding and get back to .500 in conference play. Tim Ambrose and Anthony Raffa are talented but keep shooting themselves in the foot with poor decision-making. In the case of Raffa, the foot may need a rest -- literally: turf toe has limited his effectiveness during the losing streak.
5. Stony Brook Seawolves
12-11 (5-6 AE), RPI 213, SOS 277
Last week: W 70-59 at Maine, L 63-61 vs. Binghamton (OT)
This week: 2/12 vs. Albany, 2/15 at Vermont
It's been a solid three months since preseason predictions put Stony Brook in the cellar, but it still feels strange seeing more wins than losses in the overall record. With both BU and Vermont left on the schedule, plus Albany at home and two more road games, it will be difficult (but not nearly impossible) for the Seawolves to finish .500 in conference play. 7-9 is more realistic. Even 7-9, though, is a huge positive step for Stony Brook's program, particularly considering the Seawolves' youth. Tommy Brenton isn't a sexy pick for Rookie of the Year -- it's tough to get consideration for that award while scoring just over seven points per game -- but statistically he's the best rebounder in conference play with more than ten boards per game. How impressive is Brenton's rebounding? His defensive rebounding percentage of 30.4% is fourth in the nation, slotted right between Oklahoma's Blake Griffin in third and Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair in fifth. Not too shabby.
6. Maine Black Bears
7-16 (3-8 AE), RPI 264, SOS 210
Last week: L 70-59 vs. Stony Brook, L 73-68 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County (OT)
This week: 2/11 vs. Hartford
Maine might be behind UNH and UMBC in the conference standings, but that 3-8 record hasn't come without a fight. The Black Bears' efficiency margin in conference play is a very respectable -3.3, slightly better than the Great Danes' margin and leagues ahead of both the Wildcats and the Retrievers. Maine has yet to lose by more than 11 points against an America East opponent, something only two other teams can claim (Vermont and Stony Brook). While Maine hasn't done much to deserve praise, a point differential of -22 through eleven games is deserving of a better record. Pythagoras apologizes profusely for the disservice and says a win should arrive promptly, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.
7. New Hampshire Wildcats
8-13 (4-6 AE), RPI 250, SOS 260
Last week: W 62-55 at Hartford, L 67-49 vs. Boston University
This week: 2/10 at Maryland-Baltimore County, 2/15 at Albany
While Maine has yet to lose by 12 or more, New Hampshire's only loss by 12 points or less came against Maine in double-overtime. The Wildcats are Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. If enough shots fall to make UNH's offense appear respectable, Dr. Jekyll's excellent defensive rebounding helps New Hampshire escape with a win. When the threes aren't falling, Mr. Hyde responds by shooting even more threes, resulting in more misses, extended droughts, and blowout losses. Last time the Wildcats saw UMBC it was not a three-happy affair, as UNH played under control and cruised to an 18-point win. If the Wildcats hope to build some momentum heading into season's end, a repeat performance would be a good way to start.
8. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers
9-13 (4-7 AE), RPI 211, SOS 187
Last week: W 73-68 at Maine (OT)
This week: 2/10 vs. New Hampshire, 2/14 at Hartford
The Retrievers' ability to limit turnovers has kept the offense afloat, but at this point in the season the defense is unlikely to improve. That's a problem, because UMBC has been downright awful when the other team has the ball. It's tough to win when the other team puts up points at will. Note that the Retrievers have yet to win when their opponent posts an offensive efficiency of above 115 for the game. That stat isn't unusual. The problem is, that's happened ten times this season, including five league games. The Retrievers can't force turnovers, negating their biggest advantage. Opponents taking -- and making -- a lot of shots is a harbinger of doom. UNH misses a lot of those shots, though, so there's a chance for a win tonight.
9. Hartford Hawks
6-19 (2-9 AE), RPI 280, SOS 168
Last week: L 62-55 vs. New Hampshire, L 71-63 at Vermont
This week: 2/11 at Maine, 2/14 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
There's not much to say about Hartford. The Hawks play hard for 40 minutes, but the lack of an interior presence makes the Hartford offense one-dimensional. If that dimension included a healthy Joe Zeglinski the Hawks would be more competitive, but that's strictly a hypothetical. Maybe next year.
Conference performance
OOC record: 52-57
Conference RPI: 16 out of 31
Conference SOS: 18 out of 31
BracketBusters have been announced, with Vermont as the big winner. The Catamounts get Buffalo in a game slated for ESPN2 -- beyond the RPI and SOS implications for the conference, a win would help the Catamounts case should they receive an autobid for one of the postseason tournaments. The remaining BracketBuster games are not televised and feature MAAC opponents. Boston University draws Iona, currently tied for 6th; Hartford gets 9th-place Marist; UMBC's opponent is 3rd-place Rider.
Overall Efficiency
Conference Efficiency
The standings say there's three teams in contention, but the conference efficiency numbers aren't so high on Binghamton's chances. Of course, what ultimately matters is the wins and losses columns, and it would be foolish to count Binghamton out. What the conference table indicates is how these teams have been winning their games. Vermont and BU have gone the scorched earth route, winning big and doing so habitually. Binghamton tends to make things somewhat more interesting. Binghamton's experience in close games may be an edge against Vermont, as the Catamounts haven't been able to pull out a win against the Bearcats. The Terriers have been less fazed by tight contests -- experience from winning overtime games earlier in the season certainly helps there -- but made sure to step on Binghamton's throat in the teams' first meeting, something Vermont couldn't do.
Oh, wait. Never mind. The distant league in question only appears to be distant. While the winds of change were blowing through America East, reality was quick to sink in. Three weeks ago the conference leaders had two losses and wore New Hampshire jerseys. Today the leaders wear scarlet and white and have... two losses. So much for parity.
It's a three-horse race; is there a Secretariat in this leading group, or are we in for a photo finish? Only time will tell, but here's a snapshot -- we can revisit it later should the ending prove memorable.
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents only)
1. Vermont Catamounts18-7 (9-3 AE), RPI 116, SOS 248
Last week: L 85-83 vs. Binghamton, W 79-70 at Albany, W 71-63 vs. Hartford
This week: 2/11 vs. Boston University, 2/15 vs. Stony Brook
The Terriers have first place in the standings courtesy of an eight-game winning streak, but Vermont hosts the America East leaders tomorrow night in what is almost certainly the biggest conference game of the year -- next Saturday's Battle of the BU's is a close second. The Catamounts monumental collapse at home against Binghamton temporarily overshadows what we like to call the big picture. That picture still labels Vermont as a deeper team than the Terriers with a slightly better efficiency margin in conference play. That, plus a somewhat easier schedule from here on out, keeps Vermont at the top of this list -- but for how long?
2. Boston University Terriers14-9 (9-2 AE), RPI 145, SOS 230
Last week: W 77-67 vs. Albany, W 67-49 at New Hampshire
This week: 2/11 at Vermont, 2/14 vs. Binghamton
The Terriers have rebounded from a 1-2 start in impressive fashion, grinding out overtime wins before building an impressive resumé by winning on the road despite limited depth. Fatigue isn't likely to be the problem this week, but the strength of opponent is another story entirely. Vermont and Binghamton are hot on the Terriers' heels, sitting just a half-game back. BU's previous loss to Vermont hurts: if BU splits its next two games either way and all of the top three teams win out the rest of the way, the Terriers will lose the tiebreaker for first place (if tied with Vermont, the Catamounts would own a series sweep; if tied with Binghamton, the Bearcats' sweep of Vermont would give them the tiebreaker). Two wins will all but lock up the regular-season crown and an NIT autobid. The goal for Wolff & Co.? Just win, baby!
3. Binghamton Bearcats14-8 (9-3 AE), RPI 110, SOS 226
Last week: W 85-83 at Vermont, W 63-61 at Stony Brook (OT), W 88-75 vs. Albany
This week: 2/14 at Boston University
A loss to Vermont last week would make tomorrow's BU-Vermont clash even more important, but who prefers a two-horse race over three serious contenders? Binghamton has won most of its conference games by overwhelming its opponents with big runs in short periods of time, and the comeback win at Patrick was no exception. The Bearcats scored 24 points in their last 10 possessions to shock the Burlington crowd. The Binghamton-Albany game, however, followed a somewhat different storyline. While the Bearcats' early dominance helped to build an unassailable lead, Kevin Broadus' players displayed confidence and competence for a full 40 minutes. It will take that kind of effort to grab a win in Boston and make a run at 1st place.
4. Albany Great Danes13-11 (5-6 AE), RPI 120, SOS 169
Last week: L 77-67 at Boston University, L 79-70 vs. Vermont, L 88-75 at Binghamton
This week: 2/12 at Stony Brook, 2/15 vs. New Hampshire
What a difference a week makes. At 5-3 in America East play, the Great Danes were contenders. After a second run-in with the class of the conference? The current situation is rather less promising. All of a sudden Albany needs to find a way to win at Stony Brook to reassert its grip on the 4-seed. Not that there's much of a difference between 4th and 5th when it comes to the tournament. It's more important for the Danes to stop the bleeding and get back to .500 in conference play. Tim Ambrose and Anthony Raffa are talented but keep shooting themselves in the foot with poor decision-making. In the case of Raffa, the foot may need a rest -- literally: turf toe has limited his effectiveness during the losing streak.
5. Stony Brook Seawolves12-11 (5-6 AE), RPI 213, SOS 277
Last week: W 70-59 at Maine, L 63-61 vs. Binghamton (OT)
This week: 2/12 vs. Albany, 2/15 at Vermont
It's been a solid three months since preseason predictions put Stony Brook in the cellar, but it still feels strange seeing more wins than losses in the overall record. With both BU and Vermont left on the schedule, plus Albany at home and two more road games, it will be difficult (but not nearly impossible) for the Seawolves to finish .500 in conference play. 7-9 is more realistic. Even 7-9, though, is a huge positive step for Stony Brook's program, particularly considering the Seawolves' youth. Tommy Brenton isn't a sexy pick for Rookie of the Year -- it's tough to get consideration for that award while scoring just over seven points per game -- but statistically he's the best rebounder in conference play with more than ten boards per game. How impressive is Brenton's rebounding? His defensive rebounding percentage of 30.4% is fourth in the nation, slotted right between Oklahoma's Blake Griffin in third and Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair in fifth. Not too shabby.
6. Maine Black Bears7-16 (3-8 AE), RPI 264, SOS 210
Last week: L 70-59 vs. Stony Brook, L 73-68 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County (OT)
This week: 2/11 vs. Hartford
Maine might be behind UNH and UMBC in the conference standings, but that 3-8 record hasn't come without a fight. The Black Bears' efficiency margin in conference play is a very respectable -3.3, slightly better than the Great Danes' margin and leagues ahead of both the Wildcats and the Retrievers. Maine has yet to lose by more than 11 points against an America East opponent, something only two other teams can claim (Vermont and Stony Brook). While Maine hasn't done much to deserve praise, a point differential of -22 through eleven games is deserving of a better record. Pythagoras apologizes profusely for the disservice and says a win should arrive promptly, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.
7. New Hampshire Wildcats8-13 (4-6 AE), RPI 250, SOS 260
Last week: W 62-55 at Hartford, L 67-49 vs. Boston University
This week: 2/10 at Maryland-Baltimore County, 2/15 at Albany
While Maine has yet to lose by 12 or more, New Hampshire's only loss by 12 points or less came against Maine in double-overtime. The Wildcats are Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. If enough shots fall to make UNH's offense appear respectable, Dr. Jekyll's excellent defensive rebounding helps New Hampshire escape with a win. When the threes aren't falling, Mr. Hyde responds by shooting even more threes, resulting in more misses, extended droughts, and blowout losses. Last time the Wildcats saw UMBC it was not a three-happy affair, as UNH played under control and cruised to an 18-point win. If the Wildcats hope to build some momentum heading into season's end, a repeat performance would be a good way to start.
8. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers9-13 (4-7 AE), RPI 211, SOS 187
Last week: W 73-68 at Maine (OT)
This week: 2/10 vs. New Hampshire, 2/14 at Hartford
The Retrievers' ability to limit turnovers has kept the offense afloat, but at this point in the season the defense is unlikely to improve. That's a problem, because UMBC has been downright awful when the other team has the ball. It's tough to win when the other team puts up points at will. Note that the Retrievers have yet to win when their opponent posts an offensive efficiency of above 115 for the game. That stat isn't unusual. The problem is, that's happened ten times this season, including five league games. The Retrievers can't force turnovers, negating their biggest advantage. Opponents taking -- and making -- a lot of shots is a harbinger of doom. UNH misses a lot of those shots, though, so there's a chance for a win tonight.
9. Hartford Hawks6-19 (2-9 AE), RPI 280, SOS 168
Last week: L 62-55 vs. New Hampshire, L 71-63 at Vermont
This week: 2/11 at Maine, 2/14 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
There's not much to say about Hartford. The Hawks play hard for 40 minutes, but the lack of an interior presence makes the Hartford offense one-dimensional. If that dimension included a healthy Joe Zeglinski the Hawks would be more competitive, but that's strictly a hypothetical. Maybe next year.
Conference performance
OOC record: 52-57
Conference RPI: 16 out of 31
Conference SOS: 18 out of 31
BracketBusters have been announced, with Vermont as the big winner. The Catamounts get Buffalo in a game slated for ESPN2 -- beyond the RPI and SOS implications for the conference, a win would help the Catamounts case should they receive an autobid for one of the postseason tournaments. The remaining BracketBuster games are not televised and feature MAAC opponents. Boston University draws Iona, currently tied for 6th; Hartford gets 9th-place Marist; UMBC's opponent is 3rd-place Rider.
Overall Efficiency
Conference Efficiency
The standings say there's three teams in contention, but the conference efficiency numbers aren't so high on Binghamton's chances. Of course, what ultimately matters is the wins and losses columns, and it would be foolish to count Binghamton out. What the conference table indicates is how these teams have been winning their games. Vermont and BU have gone the scorched earth route, winning big and doing so habitually. Binghamton tends to make things somewhat more interesting. Binghamton's experience in close games may be an edge against Vermont, as the Catamounts haven't been able to pull out a win against the Bearcats. The Terriers have been less fazed by tight contests -- experience from winning overtime games earlier in the season certainly helps there -- but made sure to step on Binghamton's throat in the teams' first meeting, something Vermont couldn't do.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
State of America East
Early in conference play, the standings have a tendency to appear out-of-order. Looking at the wins and losses, it's easy to imagine conference upheaval. Sure, one win by an upstart team might be an upset, but aren't two or three wins a trend?
There's parity in America East this year, for sure, but as three conference games become six or seven, the cream starts to rise to the top (and to continue the coffee metaphor, you might find an unpleasant residue at the bottom). Is your team's present outlook sweet or bitter? Let's take a look:
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents)
1. Vermont Catamounts
14-6 (5-2 America East), RPI 123, SOS 247
Last week: W 79-65 at Hartford, W 72-56 vs. New Hampshire
This week: 1/28 vs. Maine, 1/31 at New Hampshire
After starting off on the wrong foot in conference play Vermont has reasserted itself as the class of America East. Five straight wins by double-digit margins -- three of them coming on the road -- have propelled the Catamounts all the way up to the top of the standings. Marqus Blakely looks more human with each passing game, collecting only one double-double in conference play (how often does one double-double sound abnormally low?), but the Catamounts' exceptional balance leads to consistently strong performances.
2. Boston University Terriers
10-9 (5-2 AE), RPI 176, SOS 207
Last week: W 80-77 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County (2 OT), W 73-62 at Maine
This week: 1/31 at Hartford
The Terriers' marathon is finally over. Finding a way to string together wins without Tyler Morris and Carlos Strong originally appeared to be a daunting task, but it turns out BU is doing just fine with its depleted roster -- for now. Corey Lowe and John Holland have been asked to turn in superhuman performances. So far the duo has delivered, with Holland leading all America East players in scoring during conference play and Lowe ranking third. Lowe is also second in assists per game. Even more surprisingly, BU has been able to tough out wins. Who ever thought the Terriers could be described as a gritty team, or even a clutch team? In any case, this week offers a well-deserved rest leading up to a nationally televised game at Hartford, with a chance to be 6-2 at the break.
3. Binghamton Bearcats
11-7 (5-2 AE), RPI 152, SOS 258
Last week: W 60-47 at New Hampshire
This week: 1/28 at Maryland-Baltimore County, 1/31 vs. Maine
The Bearcats are without Dwayne Jackson, who has been suspended indefinitely, but didn't look any worse for wear while in Durham. D.J. Rivera had just six points, which can be interpreted in any number of ways. Maybe the Bearcats are finding ways to win without relying too heavily on their stars. On the other hand, maybe Binghamton's leading scorer is starting to wear down from the burden being placed on his shoulders. One of the quieter storylines has been the disappearance of Theo Davis, who has yet to log a single minute in conference play. In any case, the Bearcats haven't appeared to need Davis' services so far.
4. Albany Great Danes
12-8 (4-3 AE), RPI 121, SOS 217
Last week: L 58-45 vs. Stony Brook, W 80-71 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
This week: 1/28 vs. Hartford
Of the teams in America East with winning records, Albany is by far the most reliant on freshmen and sophomores. That bodes well for the future, but at present it produces some maddening changes in performance level from game to game. After appearing to be invincible at home for the first half of the season, the Great Danes came out flat against Stony Brook. Albany's high turnover rate on offense gets the Danes into trouble on occassion. Not coincidentally, Albany's turnover rate decreases substantially when the Danes play at home. Like other variations from game to game, the poor level of play exhibited against the Seawolves was corrected against the Retrievers. Watch out, Hartford.
5. Stony Brook Seawolves
10-9 (3-4 AE), RPI 196, SOS 277
Last week: W 58-45 at Albany, W 72-63 vs. Hartford
This week: 1/28 vs. New Hampshire, 1/31 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
Stony Brook's brief trip to the cellar was quickly terminated last week with a pair of wins. The Brook's triumph against Albany was its best win of the year -- don't let the name fool you, Air Force is not particularly impressive this season. The Seawolves' freshmen have momentum. Now the task is sustaining it. UMBC is reeling from a combination of fatigue, injuries, and crushing losses, but New Hampshire comes first, and the Wildcats have beaten Stony Brook in six of the last seven meetings. Old habits die hard.
6. Maine Black Bears
7-12 (3-4 AE), RPI 252, SOS 228
Last week: L 73-62 vs. Boston University
This week: 1/28 at Vermont, 1/31 at Binghamton
Maine couldn't have asked for a better start against the Terriers last weekend. Up 27-9 in the first half, the Black Bears had things under control. Of course, that's precisely when things started to unravel. It wasn't necessarily the offense's fault. Maine averaged more than one point per possession for the fourth consecutive game. No, instead the defense collapsed. More than most teams, the Black Bears need a strong defensive performance in order to win. Ten teams have averaged more than a point per possession against Maine, and all ten of those teams have won. With two more conference leaders on the horizon, the odds of Black Bear success in the near future are fairly low.
7. New Hampshire Wildcats
6-11 (2-4 AE), RPI 274, SOS 292
Last week: L 60-47 vs. Binghamton, L 72-56 at Vermont
This week: 1/28 at Stony Brook, 1/31 vs. Vermont
The Wildcats carried momentum into their double-overtime loss to Maine. It appears that momentum decided to stay behind at the Alfond. Two consecutive losses, each by a sizable margin, leave UNH in a familiar position: seventh, precisely where it finished a year ago with similar personnel. Sooner or later the image of the Wildcats as a team loaded with talented perimeter players and jump-shooters is going to fade away, and rightfully so. That image, quite frankly, isn't accurate. New Hampshire shoots a lot of 3s, but fully 70 percent of them end up as misses. The Wildcats are much more competent on the defensive end, largely due to outstanding defensive rebounding. If UNH could do a better job of keeping opponents off the free throw line, its defense would be excellent. As it is, the Wildcats are relegated to being average defensively and atrocious offensively.
8. Hartford Hawks
6-15 (2-5 AE), RPI 250, SOS 156
Last week: L 79-65 vs. Vermont, L 72-63 at Stony Brook
This week: 1/28 at Albany, 1/31 vs. Boston University
Despite the loss of Joe Zeglinski, the Hawks have managed to not embarrass themselves too much in America East play. The problem is, they rarely manage to actually win a game. Nobody can criticize the Hawks' effort or desire, but losing repeatedly by reasonable margins doesn't get a team anywhere but the cellar. Once or twice a month the Hawks manage a strong effort, either on offense or defense, and pull out a win. Maybe in February we'll see another one.
9. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers
7-11 (2-5 AE), RPI 229, SOS 215
Last week: L 80-77 at Boston University (2 OT), L 80-71 at Albany
This week: 1/28 vs. Binghamton, 1/31 at Stony Brook
There's a lot more fight in the Retrievers than most last-place teams usually have. That's further evidence of the parity in America East this year. On the other hand, UMBC isn't likely to see much improvement from its star players, and there aren't many other sources to get additional production from, given the thin bench. This is the danger of under-utilizing the bench on a healthy team: when you need bench players to replace production, they aren't ready to step in. To be fair, UMBC never had much of a bench to work with in the first place, but the few remaining reserves aren't prepared to play at this level. Unless those players manage to step up, the Retrievers will find it tough sledding from here on out.
Conference performance
OOC record: 52-57 (Last 7 days: 0-0)
Conference RPI: 16 out of 31 (last week: 16)
Conference SOS: 20 out of 31 (last week: 24)
Conference SOS improved, probably because the AE is better than usual and AE members are playing conference games. There aren't any non-conference games scheduled until ESPN BracketBusters on February 21st.
Efficiency
All games:
Conference games only:
Now that America East play is almost halfway completed, there's enough data to produce a conference-only efficiency table with some real meaning. The methodology for generating this will be detailed a bit farther down, but first let's take a look at the numbers.
Anyone wondering what separates the Terriers and the Bearcats (well, besides the Terriers' win in Vestal), look no further than the efficiency margin for conference play. The Terriers' offense is the conference's best on a per-possession basis, and it's fueling Boston University's +10.3 overall margin. While the defense needs to be tightened up a bit, it's going to be hard for other teams to keep up with the Terriers' ability to score the basketball.
On a more negative note, the Retrievers look pretty bad on a per-possession basis. Hartford has still been worse over the course of the entire season, but the Hawks' early-season schedule was significantly harder. Strength of schedule can be factored out when generating the conference table because everyone plays everyone else twice over the course of the season, and after almost one complete trip through the conference Hartford appears competent if not particularly threatening. UMBC is last overall and lacks potency on either side of the ball, ranking 8th in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency.
As was alluded to earlier, New Hampshire is lacking on the offensive side of the ball. The Wildcats' deficiencies on offense haven't improved in conference play, either. Against an average defense, the difference between UNH's offense and the Terriers' league-best attack is more than one point per five possessions. Over the course of one game played at the pace of those two teams (59.5 possessions per 40 minutes for each team), that's about 12 points. UNH's defense ranks 4th in the conference, but defense gets you nowhere when you can't score. Both Alvin Abreu and Tyrone Conley have eFG% marks in the low 40s; the resulting offensive ineptitude shouldn't come as a surprise.
Now for a quick note about the methodology used for compiling these tables. Both tables' metrics measure the same things (points per possession and tempo), but over different sets of data. The overall table includes data from every game -- you can find the numbers at Ken Pomeroy's site, kenpom.com, under raw offensive efficiency, raw defensive efficiency, and tempo. Margin, as explained in previous editions of this feature, is the difference between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency.
The conference-only table requires a bit more work. Kenpom doesn't provide conference-only statistics, so the raw data for each game (points scored, points allowed, and possessions) were put in an Excel spreadsheet and used to generate the efficiency statistics. Adjustments are made for the number of overtimes each team has played -- the Terriers' tempo would be significantly higher if they weren't credited for an additional 30 minutes played. Each week's spreadsheet, starting with this week, is available upon request.
There's parity in America East this year, for sure, but as three conference games become six or seven, the cream starts to rise to the top (and to continue the coffee metaphor, you might find an unpleasant residue at the bottom). Is your team's present outlook sweet or bitter? Let's take a look:
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents)
1. Vermont Catamounts14-6 (5-2 America East), RPI 123, SOS 247
Last week: W 79-65 at Hartford, W 72-56 vs. New Hampshire
This week: 1/28 vs. Maine, 1/31 at New Hampshire
After starting off on the wrong foot in conference play Vermont has reasserted itself as the class of America East. Five straight wins by double-digit margins -- three of them coming on the road -- have propelled the Catamounts all the way up to the top of the standings. Marqus Blakely looks more human with each passing game, collecting only one double-double in conference play (how often does one double-double sound abnormally low?), but the Catamounts' exceptional balance leads to consistently strong performances.
2. Boston University Terriers10-9 (5-2 AE), RPI 176, SOS 207
Last week: W 80-77 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County (2 OT), W 73-62 at Maine
This week: 1/31 at Hartford
The Terriers' marathon is finally over. Finding a way to string together wins without Tyler Morris and Carlos Strong originally appeared to be a daunting task, but it turns out BU is doing just fine with its depleted roster -- for now. Corey Lowe and John Holland have been asked to turn in superhuman performances. So far the duo has delivered, with Holland leading all America East players in scoring during conference play and Lowe ranking third. Lowe is also second in assists per game. Even more surprisingly, BU has been able to tough out wins. Who ever thought the Terriers could be described as a gritty team, or even a clutch team? In any case, this week offers a well-deserved rest leading up to a nationally televised game at Hartford, with a chance to be 6-2 at the break.
3. Binghamton Bearcats11-7 (5-2 AE), RPI 152, SOS 258
Last week: W 60-47 at New Hampshire
This week: 1/28 at Maryland-Baltimore County, 1/31 vs. Maine
The Bearcats are without Dwayne Jackson, who has been suspended indefinitely, but didn't look any worse for wear while in Durham. D.J. Rivera had just six points, which can be interpreted in any number of ways. Maybe the Bearcats are finding ways to win without relying too heavily on their stars. On the other hand, maybe Binghamton's leading scorer is starting to wear down from the burden being placed on his shoulders. One of the quieter storylines has been the disappearance of Theo Davis, who has yet to log a single minute in conference play. In any case, the Bearcats haven't appeared to need Davis' services so far.
4. Albany Great Danes12-8 (4-3 AE), RPI 121, SOS 217
Last week: L 58-45 vs. Stony Brook, W 80-71 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
This week: 1/28 vs. Hartford
Of the teams in America East with winning records, Albany is by far the most reliant on freshmen and sophomores. That bodes well for the future, but at present it produces some maddening changes in performance level from game to game. After appearing to be invincible at home for the first half of the season, the Great Danes came out flat against Stony Brook. Albany's high turnover rate on offense gets the Danes into trouble on occassion. Not coincidentally, Albany's turnover rate decreases substantially when the Danes play at home. Like other variations from game to game, the poor level of play exhibited against the Seawolves was corrected against the Retrievers. Watch out, Hartford.
5. Stony Brook Seawolves10-9 (3-4 AE), RPI 196, SOS 277
Last week: W 58-45 at Albany, W 72-63 vs. Hartford
This week: 1/28 vs. New Hampshire, 1/31 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
Stony Brook's brief trip to the cellar was quickly terminated last week with a pair of wins. The Brook's triumph against Albany was its best win of the year -- don't let the name fool you, Air Force is not particularly impressive this season. The Seawolves' freshmen have momentum. Now the task is sustaining it. UMBC is reeling from a combination of fatigue, injuries, and crushing losses, but New Hampshire comes first, and the Wildcats have beaten Stony Brook in six of the last seven meetings. Old habits die hard.
6. Maine Black Bears7-12 (3-4 AE), RPI 252, SOS 228
Last week: L 73-62 vs. Boston University
This week: 1/28 at Vermont, 1/31 at Binghamton
Maine couldn't have asked for a better start against the Terriers last weekend. Up 27-9 in the first half, the Black Bears had things under control. Of course, that's precisely when things started to unravel. It wasn't necessarily the offense's fault. Maine averaged more than one point per possession for the fourth consecutive game. No, instead the defense collapsed. More than most teams, the Black Bears need a strong defensive performance in order to win. Ten teams have averaged more than a point per possession against Maine, and all ten of those teams have won. With two more conference leaders on the horizon, the odds of Black Bear success in the near future are fairly low.
7. New Hampshire Wildcats6-11 (2-4 AE), RPI 274, SOS 292
Last week: L 60-47 vs. Binghamton, L 72-56 at Vermont
This week: 1/28 at Stony Brook, 1/31 vs. Vermont
The Wildcats carried momentum into their double-overtime loss to Maine. It appears that momentum decided to stay behind at the Alfond. Two consecutive losses, each by a sizable margin, leave UNH in a familiar position: seventh, precisely where it finished a year ago with similar personnel. Sooner or later the image of the Wildcats as a team loaded with talented perimeter players and jump-shooters is going to fade away, and rightfully so. That image, quite frankly, isn't accurate. New Hampshire shoots a lot of 3s, but fully 70 percent of them end up as misses. The Wildcats are much more competent on the defensive end, largely due to outstanding defensive rebounding. If UNH could do a better job of keeping opponents off the free throw line, its defense would be excellent. As it is, the Wildcats are relegated to being average defensively and atrocious offensively.
8. Hartford Hawks6-15 (2-5 AE), RPI 250, SOS 156
Last week: L 79-65 vs. Vermont, L 72-63 at Stony Brook
This week: 1/28 at Albany, 1/31 vs. Boston University
Despite the loss of Joe Zeglinski, the Hawks have managed to not embarrass themselves too much in America East play. The problem is, they rarely manage to actually win a game. Nobody can criticize the Hawks' effort or desire, but losing repeatedly by reasonable margins doesn't get a team anywhere but the cellar. Once or twice a month the Hawks manage a strong effort, either on offense or defense, and pull out a win. Maybe in February we'll see another one.
9. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers7-11 (2-5 AE), RPI 229, SOS 215
Last week: L 80-77 at Boston University (2 OT), L 80-71 at Albany
This week: 1/28 vs. Binghamton, 1/31 at Stony Brook
There's a lot more fight in the Retrievers than most last-place teams usually have. That's further evidence of the parity in America East this year. On the other hand, UMBC isn't likely to see much improvement from its star players, and there aren't many other sources to get additional production from, given the thin bench. This is the danger of under-utilizing the bench on a healthy team: when you need bench players to replace production, they aren't ready to step in. To be fair, UMBC never had much of a bench to work with in the first place, but the few remaining reserves aren't prepared to play at this level. Unless those players manage to step up, the Retrievers will find it tough sledding from here on out.
Conference performance
OOC record: 52-57 (Last 7 days: 0-0)
Conference RPI: 16 out of 31 (last week: 16)
Conference SOS: 20 out of 31 (last week: 24)
Conference SOS improved, probably because the AE is better than usual and AE members are playing conference games. There aren't any non-conference games scheduled until ESPN BracketBusters on February 21st.
Efficiency
All games:
Conference games only:
Now that America East play is almost halfway completed, there's enough data to produce a conference-only efficiency table with some real meaning. The methodology for generating this will be detailed a bit farther down, but first let's take a look at the numbers.
Anyone wondering what separates the Terriers and the Bearcats (well, besides the Terriers' win in Vestal), look no further than the efficiency margin for conference play. The Terriers' offense is the conference's best on a per-possession basis, and it's fueling Boston University's +10.3 overall margin. While the defense needs to be tightened up a bit, it's going to be hard for other teams to keep up with the Terriers' ability to score the basketball.
On a more negative note, the Retrievers look pretty bad on a per-possession basis. Hartford has still been worse over the course of the entire season, but the Hawks' early-season schedule was significantly harder. Strength of schedule can be factored out when generating the conference table because everyone plays everyone else twice over the course of the season, and after almost one complete trip through the conference Hartford appears competent if not particularly threatening. UMBC is last overall and lacks potency on either side of the ball, ranking 8th in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency.
As was alluded to earlier, New Hampshire is lacking on the offensive side of the ball. The Wildcats' deficiencies on offense haven't improved in conference play, either. Against an average defense, the difference between UNH's offense and the Terriers' league-best attack is more than one point per five possessions. Over the course of one game played at the pace of those two teams (59.5 possessions per 40 minutes for each team), that's about 12 points. UNH's defense ranks 4th in the conference, but defense gets you nowhere when you can't score. Both Alvin Abreu and Tyrone Conley have eFG% marks in the low 40s; the resulting offensive ineptitude shouldn't come as a surprise.
Now for a quick note about the methodology used for compiling these tables. Both tables' metrics measure the same things (points per possession and tempo), but over different sets of data. The overall table includes data from every game -- you can find the numbers at Ken Pomeroy's site, kenpom.com, under raw offensive efficiency, raw defensive efficiency, and tempo. Margin, as explained in previous editions of this feature, is the difference between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency.
The conference-only table requires a bit more work. Kenpom doesn't provide conference-only statistics, so the raw data for each game (points scored, points allowed, and possessions) were put in an Excel spreadsheet and used to generate the efficiency statistics. Adjustments are made for the number of overtimes each team has played -- the Terriers' tempo would be significantly higher if they weren't credited for an additional 30 minutes played. Each week's spreadsheet, starting with this week, is available upon request.
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