Not one, but two impressive streaks were impacted by BU's win over the University of Albany on Thursday night at Agganis Arena. The first? The Terriers finally won a regular season game at Agganis after having lost their previous nine contests. The second? BU continued its string of impressive play, running its winning streak to seven games with a 10-point victory over a team that beat the Terriers at the start of conference play.
Corey Lowe and John Holland were once again brilliant as the pair combined for 52 points to counteract Will Harris' 28 points on 12-of-27 shooting. Harris' 27 field goal attempts were the most by any America East player this season and a Division-I record for any UAlbany player.
Not much else needs to be said that hasn't been linked in the press below. The Terriers will have one day of rest before ending their second (and final) physically-demanding stretch of the season Saturday against UNH.
Pros:
-- Winning at Agganis: 'Nuff said.
-- Lowe/Holland again: Fifty-two points between the duo carried the Terriers on Thursday and while BU has been receiving complete team efforts on a nightly basis during the winning streak, it'll be very hard for the Terriers to win if the pair isn't on top of their respective games.
Cons:
-- Rebounding margin: The Terriers are last in the conference in defensive rebounding, which basically means that even if they hold opponents to a low shooting percentage, it still might not be enough to win the game if teams are getting second and third looks from short range.
-- Holland's second half: Albany's triangle-and-two sufficiently shut down Holland and he seemed frustrated even in the press conference after a win. If other teams learn how to replicate the same guard of Holland, it could throw a kink into BU's newly incredibly efficient offense.
Links:
Vanquishing the ghosts
BU finally breaks the Agganis curse
Returned player lays UAlbany low
UAlbany-Boston U. postgame thoughts
Friday, February 6, 2009
Post-game Audio & Photos (BU 77, Albany 67)
Below is audio from Thursday night's press conferences in BU's 77-67 victory over the University at Albany.
BU coach Dennis Wolff's opening statement
UA coach Will Brown's opening statement
Wolff talks about BU's play since the injuries
Corey Lowe thinks the Terriers can look past fatigue
Lowe and Wolff discuss the current winning streak
Wolff reflects on the amount of attention paid to Agganis Arena
Brown felt his team shut down Holland very well in the second half
UA's Will Harris can't explain why Albany got off to a slow start
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Live Blog: University at Albany vs. Boston University
Tonight's game between the University at Albany Great Danes (13-8, 5-3) and the Boston University Terriers (12-9, 7-2) tips off at 7:00 p.m. from Agganis Arena.
Here are the starting lineups for tonight's game:
University at Albany Great Danes:
11 G Anthony Raffa
23 G Tim Ambrose
03 F Will Harris
33 F Brian Connelly
54 C Brett Gifford
Boston University Terriers:
02 F Matt Wolff
13 G Corey Lowe
21 F Jake O'Brien
23 F John Holland
31 F Scott Brittain
Final Score: Boston University 77, University at Albany 67
Leading scorers:
UA -- Will Harris, 28
BU -- Corey Lowe, 27
Leading rebounders:
UA -- Brian Connelly, 12
BU -- Corey Lowe, 7
Leading assists:
UA -- Two tied at 3
BU -- Corey Lowe, 7
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
GAMEDAY: University at Albany vs. Boston University
As grueling as the last two weeks have been for the Boston University men's basketball team, that's how relaxing things have been on the campus of the University at Albany. Tonight, however, a matchup between the Terriers and Great Danes will kick-off an equally trying stretch for Albany, which will face the top three teams in the conference in a span of five days. BU is the first, Vermont the second and Binghamton the third. The Terriers, meanwhile, will play the third game in a stretch of four-in-eight days which will come to an end Saturday against the University of New Hampshire.Tonight's game at Agganis Arena symbolizes much more than a highlighted spot among personal schedules, however. The matchup could solidify the Terriers (if they haven't been already) as one of the clear-cut top teams in the conference with a victory over an Albany team that defeated them 62-61 at SEFCU Arena on January 8th. That game was the first the Terriers played without the services of Tyler Morris and Carlos Strong and it was also played without Corey Lowe, who was serving a one-game suspension.
The Terriers won't have Morris and Strong on Thursday, but they will have Lowe (17.1 points per game), who's become one of the best point guards in the league since being pushed into the role after Morris got injured. Aside from his scoring numbers (which have been consistently good throughout his career) Lowe is playing the most balanced basketball of his life, and BU coach Dennis Wolff attested to that fact. Since moving to the point, his assists have skyrocketed (40 over his last six games), his turnovers have diminished and his appearance of poise on the court has been a steadying presence for a team that's on a conference-best six-game winning streak.
Lowe's had help, however, as every player has defined their role and latched onto it, especially Holland, who's in serious contention for Player of the Year honors (18.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.9 spg). Perhaps more than anything, the biggest sign of improvement is the way the Terriers have won on the road during conference play. BU is 4-1 against America East opponents away from home, outscoring them 369-300. Tonight's game, however, isn't on the road -- it's at Agganis Arena -- a building where BU has lost its last nine regular-season games and lost by 10 to the Great Danes when BU hosted the America East tournament two seasons ago. While the Terriers have dispelled any shooting woes that may impact the team at Agganis (thanks in large part to Lowe's 36-point performance against Marshall) BU still hasn't found a way to win in the dead-atmosphere arena. Doing so tonight would go a long way to proving the Terriers are for real, especially against a physical team such as Albany.
The Danes rank 20th and 12th in the nation respectively in rebounding offense and defense and that's by far their biggest advantage over the Terriers, who are not a particularly strong rebounding team. The battle should be fairly defensive, despite the fact that BU's averaging over 70 points per game thanks to a torrid scoring pace in conference play.
One X-factor could be whether or not UA's starting point guard, Anthony Raffa, is healthy enough to play. As reported in the Albany Times Union, Raffa has turf toe in his left foot (which he suffered in their most recent win over Hartford on January 28) and he "hasn't done anything" since, according to UA coach Will Brown. Raffa reportedly received a special orthotic today and would attempt to practice. If Raffa's unavailable, Mike Johnson will start in his place.
Links:
M. Bball takes on Albany
UAlbany ready to play again, with or without Raffa
3-Part test for Great Danes
Projected starting lineups:
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
The Day After: (BU 82, UMBC 65)
Pros:
-- Jake O'Brien's career high: O'Brien notched 25 points on 9-of-19 shooting after setting a career-high of 24 two games prior. The emergence of O'Brien as a top and go-to scorer (especially in clutch situations, even when he may be having a bad shooting night) is vital to BU's continued success.
-- Scott Brittain's free throws: Brittain went 10-of-10 from the line after BU coach Dennis Wolff got on him for missing too many in practice. As Brittain continues to get fed in the post and draw fouls, his ability to make the freebies could set him apart.
-- Road blowout: BU continues to demolish conference opponents on the road with another double-digit conference win away from Boston.
Cons:
-- Getting behind big early: It may not seem like an issue anymore, as the Terriers have become awfully good at coming from behind, but still, BU would ideally not like to be trailing to start a game.
Links:
Youth Movement
O'Brien on a Terrier tear
-- Jake O'Brien's career high: O'Brien notched 25 points on 9-of-19 shooting after setting a career-high of 24 two games prior. The emergence of O'Brien as a top and go-to scorer (especially in clutch situations, even when he may be having a bad shooting night) is vital to BU's continued success.
-- Scott Brittain's free throws: Brittain went 10-of-10 from the line after BU coach Dennis Wolff got on him for missing too many in practice. As Brittain continues to get fed in the post and draw fouls, his ability to make the freebies could set him apart.
-- Road blowout: BU continues to demolish conference opponents on the road with another double-digit conference win away from Boston.
Cons:
-- Getting behind big early: It may not seem like an issue anymore, as the Terriers have become awfully good at coming from behind, but still, BU would ideally not like to be trailing to start a game.
Links:
Youth Movement
O'Brien on a Terrier tear
Monday, February 2, 2009
Stat of the Week
23 and 20
As January came to a close, Marqus Blakely decided to remind the rest of the conference why he is the reigning America East Player of the Year. Maine was the unfortunate team stuck in his way. Blakely went over, around, and through the Black Bears en route to collecting 23 points and 20 rebounds in a 75-65 Catamount victory. Only six other players have managed to grab 20 of each in a game this season; the list reads like a who's who of dominant post players. Hey, Blake Griffin, DeJuan Blair, could you move over and make some room? Mr. Blakely's looking for a seat.
As for Maine's rebounding efforts, well, we've seen this before. About a month earlier, in fact. In the Black Bears' 56-43 loss to Canisius, the Golden Griffins' Chris Gadley pulled down 25 rebounds. No other player has managed to collect 25 rebounds in a game this year; in fact, the feat hadn't been accomplished since February of 2007.
As January came to a close, Marqus Blakely decided to remind the rest of the conference why he is the reigning America East Player of the Year. Maine was the unfortunate team stuck in his way. Blakely went over, around, and through the Black Bears en route to collecting 23 points and 20 rebounds in a 75-65 Catamount victory. Only six other players have managed to grab 20 of each in a game this season; the list reads like a who's who of dominant post players. Hey, Blake Griffin, DeJuan Blair, could you move over and make some room? Mr. Blakely's looking for a seat.
As for Maine's rebounding efforts, well, we've seen this before. About a month earlier, in fact. In the Black Bears' 56-43 loss to Canisius, the Golden Griffins' Chris Gadley pulled down 25 rebounds. No other player has managed to collect 25 rebounds in a game this year; in fact, the feat hadn't been accomplished since February of 2007.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
The Day After: (BU 72, Hartford 47)
Pros:
-- Closing out the game: In the past, BU has been hampered by its inability to finish games and become lackadaisical after going up big, but a key 3-pointer by Marques Johnson followed by a trey from Corey Lowe helped prevent that.
-- Bounce-back ability from a bad practice: The Terriers had a poor practice two days before the game, but were able to regroup and dismantle a Hartford squad that beat them in last years' America East Tournament.
-- Scott Brittain's blocks: Brittain had five blocks as he continues to swat more shots as conference play progresses.
Cons:
-- Even rebounding margin: There's really not much else at all to find negative about the way the Terriers won this game, but something's got to go in the "con's" spot. No?
Links:
Terriers crush Hartford
-- Closing out the game: In the past, BU has been hampered by its inability to finish games and become lackadaisical after going up big, but a key 3-pointer by Marques Johnson followed by a trey from Corey Lowe helped prevent that.
-- Bounce-back ability from a bad practice: The Terriers had a poor practice two days before the game, but were able to regroup and dismantle a Hartford squad that beat them in last years' America East Tournament.
-- Scott Brittain's blocks: Brittain had five blocks as he continues to swat more shots as conference play progresses.
Cons:
-- Even rebounding margin: There's really not much else at all to find negative about the way the Terriers won this game, but something's got to go in the "con's" spot. No?
Links:
Terriers crush Hartford
Saturday, January 31, 2009
GAMEDAY: Boston University vs. the University of Hartford
A winning streak is no easy thing to extend -- especially in the America East, where every one of the nine teams has shown the ability to beat any other on a given night. But the Terriers will look to do just that Saturday against the worst team in the conference (Hartford). The Hawks are on a five game losing streak, while BU will look to push its season-high winning streak to five games. If the Terriers win, they'll tie their longest winning streak in the last three seasons. The game is also televised nationally on ESPNU, which probably gives an added edge to Hartford and its fans as students and others who wouldn't normally attend the game will fill out the stands.While the Terriers had two days off at the beginning of the week (which undoubtedly helped them regain the strength and stamina they lost over their last trying stretch of four games in nine days) their last two practices have left something to be desired. While the time off was necessary, one wonders if it will hamper the Terriers and remove them from their steadfast groove of solid play.
If that's the case, Hartford's an ideal opponent for BU to start its newest fatigue-plagued stretch against (four games in eight days). The Hawks have the worst record in the conference and haven't lived up to
expectations. To make matters worse, they lost their best player in mid-December (junior guard Joe Zeglinski) and he won't return this season. Zeglinski was averaging 15.3 points per game. Since his departure, senior guard Jaret von Rosenberg has shouldered the load, scoring 13.7 points per game. While Hartford is a decent offensive team (63.7 points per game), their defense has been their downfall. In addition, the Hawks doesn't rebound particularly well (especially offensively), so if they're struggling from the field, they probably won't get many second chances at net.For the Terriers, John Holland and Corey Lowe have been unbelievable since the beginning of conference play. Lowe is averaging 18.2 points per game, while Holland is averaging 17.8 points per game (third and fourth in the conference respectively). In addition to BU's two biggest scoring threats, however, the Terriers will need contributions from their big men in the middle. Scott Brittain has averaged 11.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game since being re-inserted into the starting lineup. BU coach Dennis Wolff, however, is still looking for more out of his junior forward and much more from freshman forward Jeff Pelage. Pelage has been a bit of an enigma this season as he's shown flashes of brilliance, but hasn't been able to consistently display the proper effort necessary for a collegiate basketball player. If he does, Pelage could be an extremely dangerous weapon for the Terriers, especially given the shortened bench.
Projected starting lineups:
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
State of America East
Early in conference play, the standings have a tendency to appear out-of-order. Looking at the wins and losses, it's easy to imagine conference upheaval. Sure, one win by an upstart team might be an upset, but aren't two or three wins a trend?
There's parity in America East this year, for sure, but as three conference games become six or seven, the cream starts to rise to the top (and to continue the coffee metaphor, you might find an unpleasant residue at the bottom). Is your team's present outlook sweet or bitter? Let's take a look:
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents)
1. Vermont Catamounts
14-6 (5-2 America East), RPI 123, SOS 247
Last week: W 79-65 at Hartford, W 72-56 vs. New Hampshire
This week: 1/28 vs. Maine, 1/31 at New Hampshire
After starting off on the wrong foot in conference play Vermont has reasserted itself as the class of America East. Five straight wins by double-digit margins -- three of them coming on the road -- have propelled the Catamounts all the way up to the top of the standings. Marqus Blakely looks more human with each passing game, collecting only one double-double in conference play (how often does one double-double sound abnormally low?), but the Catamounts' exceptional balance leads to consistently strong performances.
2. Boston University Terriers
10-9 (5-2 AE), RPI 176, SOS 207
Last week: W 80-77 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County (2 OT), W 73-62 at Maine
This week: 1/31 at Hartford
The Terriers' marathon is finally over. Finding a way to string together wins without Tyler Morris and Carlos Strong originally appeared to be a daunting task, but it turns out BU is doing just fine with its depleted roster -- for now. Corey Lowe and John Holland have been asked to turn in superhuman performances. So far the duo has delivered, with Holland leading all America East players in scoring during conference play and Lowe ranking third. Lowe is also second in assists per game. Even more surprisingly, BU has been able to tough out wins. Who ever thought the Terriers could be described as a gritty team, or even a clutch team? In any case, this week offers a well-deserved rest leading up to a nationally televised game at Hartford, with a chance to be 6-2 at the break.
3. Binghamton Bearcats
11-7 (5-2 AE), RPI 152, SOS 258
Last week: W 60-47 at New Hampshire
This week: 1/28 at Maryland-Baltimore County, 1/31 vs. Maine
The Bearcats are without Dwayne Jackson, who has been suspended indefinitely, but didn't look any worse for wear while in Durham. D.J. Rivera had just six points, which can be interpreted in any number of ways. Maybe the Bearcats are finding ways to win without relying too heavily on their stars. On the other hand, maybe Binghamton's leading scorer is starting to wear down from the burden being placed on his shoulders. One of the quieter storylines has been the disappearance of Theo Davis, who has yet to log a single minute in conference play. In any case, the Bearcats haven't appeared to need Davis' services so far.
4. Albany Great Danes
12-8 (4-3 AE), RPI 121, SOS 217
Last week: L 58-45 vs. Stony Brook, W 80-71 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
This week: 1/28 vs. Hartford
Of the teams in America East with winning records, Albany is by far the most reliant on freshmen and sophomores. That bodes well for the future, but at present it produces some maddening changes in performance level from game to game. After appearing to be invincible at home for the first half of the season, the Great Danes came out flat against Stony Brook. Albany's high turnover rate on offense gets the Danes into trouble on occassion. Not coincidentally, Albany's turnover rate decreases substantially when the Danes play at home. Like other variations from game to game, the poor level of play exhibited against the Seawolves was corrected against the Retrievers. Watch out, Hartford.
5. Stony Brook Seawolves
10-9 (3-4 AE), RPI 196, SOS 277
Last week: W 58-45 at Albany, W 72-63 vs. Hartford
This week: 1/28 vs. New Hampshire, 1/31 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
Stony Brook's brief trip to the cellar was quickly terminated last week with a pair of wins. The Brook's triumph against Albany was its best win of the year -- don't let the name fool you, Air Force is not particularly impressive this season. The Seawolves' freshmen have momentum. Now the task is sustaining it. UMBC is reeling from a combination of fatigue, injuries, and crushing losses, but New Hampshire comes first, and the Wildcats have beaten Stony Brook in six of the last seven meetings. Old habits die hard.
6. Maine Black Bears
7-12 (3-4 AE), RPI 252, SOS 228
Last week: L 73-62 vs. Boston University
This week: 1/28 at Vermont, 1/31 at Binghamton
Maine couldn't have asked for a better start against the Terriers last weekend. Up 27-9 in the first half, the Black Bears had things under control. Of course, that's precisely when things started to unravel. It wasn't necessarily the offense's fault. Maine averaged more than one point per possession for the fourth consecutive game. No, instead the defense collapsed. More than most teams, the Black Bears need a strong defensive performance in order to win. Ten teams have averaged more than a point per possession against Maine, and all ten of those teams have won. With two more conference leaders on the horizon, the odds of Black Bear success in the near future are fairly low.
7. New Hampshire Wildcats
6-11 (2-4 AE), RPI 274, SOS 292
Last week: L 60-47 vs. Binghamton, L 72-56 at Vermont
This week: 1/28 at Stony Brook, 1/31 vs. Vermont
The Wildcats carried momentum into their double-overtime loss to Maine. It appears that momentum decided to stay behind at the Alfond. Two consecutive losses, each by a sizable margin, leave UNH in a familiar position: seventh, precisely where it finished a year ago with similar personnel. Sooner or later the image of the Wildcats as a team loaded with talented perimeter players and jump-shooters is going to fade away, and rightfully so. That image, quite frankly, isn't accurate. New Hampshire shoots a lot of 3s, but fully 70 percent of them end up as misses. The Wildcats are much more competent on the defensive end, largely due to outstanding defensive rebounding. If UNH could do a better job of keeping opponents off the free throw line, its defense would be excellent. As it is, the Wildcats are relegated to being average defensively and atrocious offensively.
8. Hartford Hawks
6-15 (2-5 AE), RPI 250, SOS 156
Last week: L 79-65 vs. Vermont, L 72-63 at Stony Brook
This week: 1/28 at Albany, 1/31 vs. Boston University
Despite the loss of Joe Zeglinski, the Hawks have managed to not embarrass themselves too much in America East play. The problem is, they rarely manage to actually win a game. Nobody can criticize the Hawks' effort or desire, but losing repeatedly by reasonable margins doesn't get a team anywhere but the cellar. Once or twice a month the Hawks manage a strong effort, either on offense or defense, and pull out a win. Maybe in February we'll see another one.
9. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers
7-11 (2-5 AE), RPI 229, SOS 215
Last week: L 80-77 at Boston University (2 OT), L 80-71 at Albany
This week: 1/28 vs. Binghamton, 1/31 at Stony Brook
There's a lot more fight in the Retrievers than most last-place teams usually have. That's further evidence of the parity in America East this year. On the other hand, UMBC isn't likely to see much improvement from its star players, and there aren't many other sources to get additional production from, given the thin bench. This is the danger of under-utilizing the bench on a healthy team: when you need bench players to replace production, they aren't ready to step in. To be fair, UMBC never had much of a bench to work with in the first place, but the few remaining reserves aren't prepared to play at this level. Unless those players manage to step up, the Retrievers will find it tough sledding from here on out.
Conference performance
OOC record: 52-57 (Last 7 days: 0-0)
Conference RPI: 16 out of 31 (last week: 16)
Conference SOS: 20 out of 31 (last week: 24)
Conference SOS improved, probably because the AE is better than usual and AE members are playing conference games. There aren't any non-conference games scheduled until ESPN BracketBusters on February 21st.
Efficiency
All games:
Conference games only:
Now that America East play is almost halfway completed, there's enough data to produce a conference-only efficiency table with some real meaning. The methodology for generating this will be detailed a bit farther down, but first let's take a look at the numbers.
Anyone wondering what separates the Terriers and the Bearcats (well, besides the Terriers' win in Vestal), look no further than the efficiency margin for conference play. The Terriers' offense is the conference's best on a per-possession basis, and it's fueling Boston University's +10.3 overall margin. While the defense needs to be tightened up a bit, it's going to be hard for other teams to keep up with the Terriers' ability to score the basketball.
On a more negative note, the Retrievers look pretty bad on a per-possession basis. Hartford has still been worse over the course of the entire season, but the Hawks' early-season schedule was significantly harder. Strength of schedule can be factored out when generating the conference table because everyone plays everyone else twice over the course of the season, and after almost one complete trip through the conference Hartford appears competent if not particularly threatening. UMBC is last overall and lacks potency on either side of the ball, ranking 8th in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency.
As was alluded to earlier, New Hampshire is lacking on the offensive side of the ball. The Wildcats' deficiencies on offense haven't improved in conference play, either. Against an average defense, the difference between UNH's offense and the Terriers' league-best attack is more than one point per five possessions. Over the course of one game played at the pace of those two teams (59.5 possessions per 40 minutes for each team), that's about 12 points. UNH's defense ranks 4th in the conference, but defense gets you nowhere when you can't score. Both Alvin Abreu and Tyrone Conley have eFG% marks in the low 40s; the resulting offensive ineptitude shouldn't come as a surprise.
Now for a quick note about the methodology used for compiling these tables. Both tables' metrics measure the same things (points per possession and tempo), but over different sets of data. The overall table includes data from every game -- you can find the numbers at Ken Pomeroy's site, kenpom.com, under raw offensive efficiency, raw defensive efficiency, and tempo. Margin, as explained in previous editions of this feature, is the difference between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency.
The conference-only table requires a bit more work. Kenpom doesn't provide conference-only statistics, so the raw data for each game (points scored, points allowed, and possessions) were put in an Excel spreadsheet and used to generate the efficiency statistics. Adjustments are made for the number of overtimes each team has played -- the Terriers' tempo would be significantly higher if they weren't credited for an additional 30 minutes played. Each week's spreadsheet, starting with this week, is available upon request.
There's parity in America East this year, for sure, but as three conference games become six or seven, the cream starts to rise to the top (and to continue the coffee metaphor, you might find an unpleasant residue at the bottom). Is your team's present outlook sweet or bitter? Let's take a look:
America East Power Rankings (records versus D-I opponents)
1. Vermont Catamounts14-6 (5-2 America East), RPI 123, SOS 247
Last week: W 79-65 at Hartford, W 72-56 vs. New Hampshire
This week: 1/28 vs. Maine, 1/31 at New Hampshire
After starting off on the wrong foot in conference play Vermont has reasserted itself as the class of America East. Five straight wins by double-digit margins -- three of them coming on the road -- have propelled the Catamounts all the way up to the top of the standings. Marqus Blakely looks more human with each passing game, collecting only one double-double in conference play (how often does one double-double sound abnormally low?), but the Catamounts' exceptional balance leads to consistently strong performances.
2. Boston University Terriers10-9 (5-2 AE), RPI 176, SOS 207
Last week: W 80-77 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County (2 OT), W 73-62 at Maine
This week: 1/31 at Hartford
The Terriers' marathon is finally over. Finding a way to string together wins without Tyler Morris and Carlos Strong originally appeared to be a daunting task, but it turns out BU is doing just fine with its depleted roster -- for now. Corey Lowe and John Holland have been asked to turn in superhuman performances. So far the duo has delivered, with Holland leading all America East players in scoring during conference play and Lowe ranking third. Lowe is also second in assists per game. Even more surprisingly, BU has been able to tough out wins. Who ever thought the Terriers could be described as a gritty team, or even a clutch team? In any case, this week offers a well-deserved rest leading up to a nationally televised game at Hartford, with a chance to be 6-2 at the break.
3. Binghamton Bearcats11-7 (5-2 AE), RPI 152, SOS 258
Last week: W 60-47 at New Hampshire
This week: 1/28 at Maryland-Baltimore County, 1/31 vs. Maine
The Bearcats are without Dwayne Jackson, who has been suspended indefinitely, but didn't look any worse for wear while in Durham. D.J. Rivera had just six points, which can be interpreted in any number of ways. Maybe the Bearcats are finding ways to win without relying too heavily on their stars. On the other hand, maybe Binghamton's leading scorer is starting to wear down from the burden being placed on his shoulders. One of the quieter storylines has been the disappearance of Theo Davis, who has yet to log a single minute in conference play. In any case, the Bearcats haven't appeared to need Davis' services so far.
4. Albany Great Danes12-8 (4-3 AE), RPI 121, SOS 217
Last week: L 58-45 vs. Stony Brook, W 80-71 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
This week: 1/28 vs. Hartford
Of the teams in America East with winning records, Albany is by far the most reliant on freshmen and sophomores. That bodes well for the future, but at present it produces some maddening changes in performance level from game to game. After appearing to be invincible at home for the first half of the season, the Great Danes came out flat against Stony Brook. Albany's high turnover rate on offense gets the Danes into trouble on occassion. Not coincidentally, Albany's turnover rate decreases substantially when the Danes play at home. Like other variations from game to game, the poor level of play exhibited against the Seawolves was corrected against the Retrievers. Watch out, Hartford.
5. Stony Brook Seawolves10-9 (3-4 AE), RPI 196, SOS 277
Last week: W 58-45 at Albany, W 72-63 vs. Hartford
This week: 1/28 vs. New Hampshire, 1/31 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County
Stony Brook's brief trip to the cellar was quickly terminated last week with a pair of wins. The Brook's triumph against Albany was its best win of the year -- don't let the name fool you, Air Force is not particularly impressive this season. The Seawolves' freshmen have momentum. Now the task is sustaining it. UMBC is reeling from a combination of fatigue, injuries, and crushing losses, but New Hampshire comes first, and the Wildcats have beaten Stony Brook in six of the last seven meetings. Old habits die hard.
6. Maine Black Bears7-12 (3-4 AE), RPI 252, SOS 228
Last week: L 73-62 vs. Boston University
This week: 1/28 at Vermont, 1/31 at Binghamton
Maine couldn't have asked for a better start against the Terriers last weekend. Up 27-9 in the first half, the Black Bears had things under control. Of course, that's precisely when things started to unravel. It wasn't necessarily the offense's fault. Maine averaged more than one point per possession for the fourth consecutive game. No, instead the defense collapsed. More than most teams, the Black Bears need a strong defensive performance in order to win. Ten teams have averaged more than a point per possession against Maine, and all ten of those teams have won. With two more conference leaders on the horizon, the odds of Black Bear success in the near future are fairly low.
7. New Hampshire Wildcats6-11 (2-4 AE), RPI 274, SOS 292
Last week: L 60-47 vs. Binghamton, L 72-56 at Vermont
This week: 1/28 at Stony Brook, 1/31 vs. Vermont
The Wildcats carried momentum into their double-overtime loss to Maine. It appears that momentum decided to stay behind at the Alfond. Two consecutive losses, each by a sizable margin, leave UNH in a familiar position: seventh, precisely where it finished a year ago with similar personnel. Sooner or later the image of the Wildcats as a team loaded with talented perimeter players and jump-shooters is going to fade away, and rightfully so. That image, quite frankly, isn't accurate. New Hampshire shoots a lot of 3s, but fully 70 percent of them end up as misses. The Wildcats are much more competent on the defensive end, largely due to outstanding defensive rebounding. If UNH could do a better job of keeping opponents off the free throw line, its defense would be excellent. As it is, the Wildcats are relegated to being average defensively and atrocious offensively.
8. Hartford Hawks6-15 (2-5 AE), RPI 250, SOS 156
Last week: L 79-65 vs. Vermont, L 72-63 at Stony Brook
This week: 1/28 at Albany, 1/31 vs. Boston University
Despite the loss of Joe Zeglinski, the Hawks have managed to not embarrass themselves too much in America East play. The problem is, they rarely manage to actually win a game. Nobody can criticize the Hawks' effort or desire, but losing repeatedly by reasonable margins doesn't get a team anywhere but the cellar. Once or twice a month the Hawks manage a strong effort, either on offense or defense, and pull out a win. Maybe in February we'll see another one.
9. Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers7-11 (2-5 AE), RPI 229, SOS 215
Last week: L 80-77 at Boston University (2 OT), L 80-71 at Albany
This week: 1/28 vs. Binghamton, 1/31 at Stony Brook
There's a lot more fight in the Retrievers than most last-place teams usually have. That's further evidence of the parity in America East this year. On the other hand, UMBC isn't likely to see much improvement from its star players, and there aren't many other sources to get additional production from, given the thin bench. This is the danger of under-utilizing the bench on a healthy team: when you need bench players to replace production, they aren't ready to step in. To be fair, UMBC never had much of a bench to work with in the first place, but the few remaining reserves aren't prepared to play at this level. Unless those players manage to step up, the Retrievers will find it tough sledding from here on out.
Conference performance
OOC record: 52-57 (Last 7 days: 0-0)
Conference RPI: 16 out of 31 (last week: 16)
Conference SOS: 20 out of 31 (last week: 24)
Conference SOS improved, probably because the AE is better than usual and AE members are playing conference games. There aren't any non-conference games scheduled until ESPN BracketBusters on February 21st.
Efficiency
All games:
Conference games only:
Now that America East play is almost halfway completed, there's enough data to produce a conference-only efficiency table with some real meaning. The methodology for generating this will be detailed a bit farther down, but first let's take a look at the numbers.
Anyone wondering what separates the Terriers and the Bearcats (well, besides the Terriers' win in Vestal), look no further than the efficiency margin for conference play. The Terriers' offense is the conference's best on a per-possession basis, and it's fueling Boston University's +10.3 overall margin. While the defense needs to be tightened up a bit, it's going to be hard for other teams to keep up with the Terriers' ability to score the basketball.
On a more negative note, the Retrievers look pretty bad on a per-possession basis. Hartford has still been worse over the course of the entire season, but the Hawks' early-season schedule was significantly harder. Strength of schedule can be factored out when generating the conference table because everyone plays everyone else twice over the course of the season, and after almost one complete trip through the conference Hartford appears competent if not particularly threatening. UMBC is last overall and lacks potency on either side of the ball, ranking 8th in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency.
As was alluded to earlier, New Hampshire is lacking on the offensive side of the ball. The Wildcats' deficiencies on offense haven't improved in conference play, either. Against an average defense, the difference between UNH's offense and the Terriers' league-best attack is more than one point per five possessions. Over the course of one game played at the pace of those two teams (59.5 possessions per 40 minutes for each team), that's about 12 points. UNH's defense ranks 4th in the conference, but defense gets you nowhere when you can't score. Both Alvin Abreu and Tyrone Conley have eFG% marks in the low 40s; the resulting offensive ineptitude shouldn't come as a surprise.
Now for a quick note about the methodology used for compiling these tables. Both tables' metrics measure the same things (points per possession and tempo), but over different sets of data. The overall table includes data from every game -- you can find the numbers at Ken Pomeroy's site, kenpom.com, under raw offensive efficiency, raw defensive efficiency, and tempo. Margin, as explained in previous editions of this feature, is the difference between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency.
The conference-only table requires a bit more work. Kenpom doesn't provide conference-only statistics, so the raw data for each game (points scored, points allowed, and possessions) were put in an Excel spreadsheet and used to generate the efficiency statistics. Adjustments are made for the number of overtimes each team has played -- the Terriers' tempo would be significantly higher if they weren't credited for an additional 30 minutes played. Each week's spreadsheet, starting with this week, is available upon request.
Monday, January 26, 2009
The Day After: (BU 73, Maine 62)
Finally, the Terriers have a chance to breathe. And do more than that, actually, as their brutal stretch of four games in nine days (which turned even more demanding, physically at least, when the team played six overtimes periods in a span of three nights) is over. The silver lining? BU won all four games to vault them over the .500 mark for the first time since they were 5-4 in December and pull into a three-way tie with Binghamton and Vermont (both 5-2) in conference play.
What's more is the way the Terriers capped their four-game stretch -- with an 11-point victory in frigid Alfond Arena after trailing by 18 points in the first half (73-62). In all honesty, BU could have collapsed. They could have allowed fatigue to become an all-too-easy excuse for the early deficit (though it was actually a sloppy zone defense and lack of shooting) and still had a phenomenal week in conference play with a 3-1 record. But they didn't. Instead, this group -- which was has been mercilessly criticized throughout the course of the season and some of their careers for not being tough enough at the end of games to close out victories, even with a big lead -- summoned enough energy to overcome the deficit on the road and put themselves right back in the talk for conference title contenders. It's somewhere not many people would have placed the Terriers, especially after the news came that Tyler Morris and Carlos Strong were lost for the season, but BU has looked to have proven their doubters wrong.
While the result of the week that was is extremely impressive and encouraging (and the team is on a season-high four-game winning streak, averaging 83.3 points over those last four contests), BU's work doesn't get any easier, nor will it for the remainder of the season (with perhaps the exception of the BracketBusters game, which doesn't hold nearly the importance of BU's conference contests). The victory against Maine marked the beginning of a stretch where the Terriers will play three in a row on the road and five of seven.
While Corey Lowe (who set BU's all-time record for 3-pointers made in a career), John Holland and Jake O'Brien are the Terriers' main scoring threats since conference play started, the current run would not have been possible had it not been for the contributions from Scott Brittain and Matt Wolff. Brittain has almost worked back to his sophomore-year form and is playing with perhaps the most confidence he has in his career. Since the start of conference play (and consequently, his insertion into the starting lineup) he's averaging 11.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game (and 8.0 in BU's last four). Wolff, while often criticized for not putting up flashy numbers, remains a key contributor for the Terriers -- games like his seven-assist, six-rebound performance against Maine and his defensive lockdown of Darryl Proctor late in Thursday's victory against UMBC are two prime recent examples.
In a wide-open conference, the Terriers have as much momentum as any other team heading into their bye week. Rest before Saturday's game at Hartford couldn't have come at a better time for a team fighting fatigue (and that will be fighting fatigue all season).
Pros:
-- 20 Assists: BU notched a season-high in assists with a season-high (for any Terrier) nine from Lowe and seven from Wolff. BU's win at Alfond last season sparked a major winning streak and a key turnaround after an offensive switch. The team has already started playing better prior to a visit to Alfond, but perhaps this win will keep them going.
-- Man-to-man defense: Though the Terriers have been playing a matchup zone for the majority of the conference schedule, BU coach Dennis Wolff decided to switch to a man and it helped fuel the 18-point comeback victory. It's a great sign that BU can now use two defenses effectively after primarily being a man-to-man team for the whole season.
Cons:
-- Slow start: For the second-straight game, BU started sluggishly. While fatigue may be an acceptable excuse, the Terriers can't get used to a winning formula of having to climb out of early holes.
-- Marques Johnson's minutes: While Johnson's performance against Albany may have been an anomaly, he should probably be playing more than three minutes a game because the Terriers may need him down the stretch, especially if fatigue does become a serious issue.
Links:
MBball wins fourth straight
Black Bears' start trumped by BU's finish
What's more is the way the Terriers capped their four-game stretch -- with an 11-point victory in frigid Alfond Arena after trailing by 18 points in the first half (73-62). In all honesty, BU could have collapsed. They could have allowed fatigue to become an all-too-easy excuse for the early deficit (though it was actually a sloppy zone defense and lack of shooting) and still had a phenomenal week in conference play with a 3-1 record. But they didn't. Instead, this group -- which was has been mercilessly criticized throughout the course of the season and some of their careers for not being tough enough at the end of games to close out victories, even with a big lead -- summoned enough energy to overcome the deficit on the road and put themselves right back in the talk for conference title contenders. It's somewhere not many people would have placed the Terriers, especially after the news came that Tyler Morris and Carlos Strong were lost for the season, but BU has looked to have proven their doubters wrong.
While the result of the week that was is extremely impressive and encouraging (and the team is on a season-high four-game winning streak, averaging 83.3 points over those last four contests), BU's work doesn't get any easier, nor will it for the remainder of the season (with perhaps the exception of the BracketBusters game, which doesn't hold nearly the importance of BU's conference contests). The victory against Maine marked the beginning of a stretch where the Terriers will play three in a row on the road and five of seven.
While Corey Lowe (who set BU's all-time record for 3-pointers made in a career), John Holland and Jake O'Brien are the Terriers' main scoring threats since conference play started, the current run would not have been possible had it not been for the contributions from Scott Brittain and Matt Wolff. Brittain has almost worked back to his sophomore-year form and is playing with perhaps the most confidence he has in his career. Since the start of conference play (and consequently, his insertion into the starting lineup) he's averaging 11.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game (and 8.0 in BU's last four). Wolff, while often criticized for not putting up flashy numbers, remains a key contributor for the Terriers -- games like his seven-assist, six-rebound performance against Maine and his defensive lockdown of Darryl Proctor late in Thursday's victory against UMBC are two prime recent examples.
In a wide-open conference, the Terriers have as much momentum as any other team heading into their bye week. Rest before Saturday's game at Hartford couldn't have come at a better time for a team fighting fatigue (and that will be fighting fatigue all season).
Pros:
-- 20 Assists: BU notched a season-high in assists with a season-high (for any Terrier) nine from Lowe and seven from Wolff. BU's win at Alfond last season sparked a major winning streak and a key turnaround after an offensive switch. The team has already started playing better prior to a visit to Alfond, but perhaps this win will keep them going.
-- Man-to-man defense: Though the Terriers have been playing a matchup zone for the majority of the conference schedule, BU coach Dennis Wolff decided to switch to a man and it helped fuel the 18-point comeback victory. It's a great sign that BU can now use two defenses effectively after primarily being a man-to-man team for the whole season.
Cons:
-- Slow start: For the second-straight game, BU started sluggishly. While fatigue may be an acceptable excuse, the Terriers can't get used to a winning formula of having to climb out of early holes.
-- Marques Johnson's minutes: While Johnson's performance against Albany may have been an anomaly, he should probably be playing more than three minutes a game because the Terriers may need him down the stretch, especially if fatigue does become a serious issue.
Links:
MBball wins fourth straight
Black Bears' start trumped by BU's finish
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